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Unpacking Treatment Effect Heterogeneity in a Large-Scale Dropout-Prevention Experiment

Author

Listed:
  • Thomas Dee
  • Chloe R. Gibbs
  • Rebecca Margolit-Chan
  • Lillian Morrell
  • James X. Sullivan

Abstract

Timely high school completion is a critical step in successful transitions to post-secondary schooling and the labor market. This randomized controlled trial, deployed in two urban, disadvantaged school districts, tests the effectiveness of a mature and comprehensive student-support program on an unusually large scale (n=2,528). While overall effects on graduation rates are small and statistically insignificant, exploratory analyses reveal notable variation by site and over time, mirroring heterogeneity in treatment timing and program implementation. These findings highlight the challenges of scaling interventions and raise concerns about generalizing results from small-scale, single-site evaluations.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas Dee & Chloe R. Gibbs & Rebecca Margolit-Chan & Lillian Morrell & James X. Sullivan, 2026. "Unpacking Treatment Effect Heterogeneity in a Large-Scale Dropout-Prevention Experiment," NBER Working Papers 35558, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35558
    Note: CH ED LS
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • I24 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Education and Inequality
    • I26 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Returns to Education
    • I31 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - General Welfare, Well-Being

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