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Return Persistence and Fund Flows in the Worst Performing Mutual Funds

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  • Jonathan B. Berk
  • Ian Tonks

Abstract

We document that the observed persistence amongst the worst performing actively managed mutual funds is attributable to funds that have performed poorly both in the current and prior year. We demonstrate that this persistence results from an unwillingness of investors in these funds to respond to bad performance by withdrawing their capital. In contrast, funds that only performed poorly in the current year have a significantly larger (out)flow of funds/return sensitivity and consequently show no evidence of persistence in their returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Jonathan B. Berk & Ian Tonks, 2007. "Return Persistence and Fund Flows in the Worst Performing Mutual Funds," NBER Working Papers 13042, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:13042
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Goetzmann, W.N. & Ibbotson, R.G., 1990. "Do Winners Repeat? Patterns in Mutual Fund Behavior," Papers fb-_91-04, Columbia - Graduate School of Business.
    2. Lu Zheng, 1999. "Is Money Smart? A Study of Mutual Fund Investors' Fund Selection Ability," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(3), pages 901-933, June.
    3. Edwin J. Elton & Martin J. Gruber & Jeffrey A. Busse, 2004. "Are Investors Rational? Choices among Index Funds," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(1), pages 261-288, February.
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    5. Harry Mamaysky & Matthew Spiegel & Hong Zhang, 2007. "Improved Forecasting of Mutual Fund Alphas and Betas," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 11(3), pages 359-400.
    6. Jonathan B. Berk & Richard C. Green, 2004. "Mutual Fund Flows and Performance in Rational Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(6), pages 1269-1295, December.
    7. Schwartz, Eduardo S & Torous, Walter N, 1989. " Prepayment and the Valuation of Mortgage-Backed Securities," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(2), pages 375-392, June.
    8. Jonathan Lewellen & Jay Shanken, 2002. "Learning, Asset-Pricing Tests, and Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(3), pages 1113-1145, June.
    9. Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-636, May-June.
    10. Hendricks, Darryll & Patel, Jayendu & Zeckhauser, Richard, 1993. " Hot Hands in Mutual Funds: Short-Run Persistence of Relative Performance, 1974-1988," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 93-130, March.
    11. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Titman, Sheridan, 1993. " Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 65-91, March.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Berggrun, Luis & Lizarzaburu, Edmundo, 2015. "Fund flows and performance in Brazil," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 199-207.
    2. Jank, Stephan & Wedow, Michael, 2015. "Sturm und Drang in money market funds: When money market funds cease to be narrow," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 59-70.
    3. Lucia Milone & Paolo Pellizzari, 2009. "Mutual funds flows and the "Sheriff of Nottingham" effect," Working Papers 188, Department of Applied Mathematics, Università Ca' Foscari Venezia.
    4. Berk, Jonathan B. & van Binsbergen, Jules H., 2016. "Assessing asset pricing models using revealed preference," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 1-23.
    5. Wu, Youchang & Wermers, Russ & Zechner, Josef, 2012. "Governance and shareholder value in delegated portfolio management: The case of closed-end funds," CFR Working Papers 12-11, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    6. Mason, Andrew & Agyei-Ampomah, Sam & Skinner, Frank, 2016. "Realism, skill, and incentives: Current and future trends in investment management and investment performance," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 31-40.
    7. Ariadna Dumitrescu & Javier Gil-Bazo, 2015. "Familiarity and competition: the case of mutual funds," Economics Working Papers 1474, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    8. Babalos, Vassilios & Kostakis, Alexandros & Philippas, Nikolaos, 2009. "Managing mutual funds or managing expense ratios? Evidence from the Greek fund industry," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 256-272, October.
    9. Bessler, Wolfgang & Blake, David & Lückoff, Peter & Tonks, Ian, 2010. "Why does mutual fund performance not persist? The impact and interaction of fund flows and manager changes," MPRA Paper 34185, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. repec:eee:finlet:v:22:y:2017:i:c:p:66-73 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Hobbs, Jeffrey & Singh, Vivek, 2015. "A comparison of buy-side and sell-side analysts," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 42-51.
    12. Jacquelyn E. Humphrey & Michael A. O'Brien, 2010. "Persistence and the four-factor model in the Australian funds market: a note," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 50(1), pages 103-119.
    13. Ainulashikin Marzuki & Andrew C. Worthington, 2011. "Comparative fund flows for Malaysian Islamic and conventional domestic managed equity funds," Discussion Papers in Finance finance:201118, Griffith University, Department of Accounting, Finance and Economics.
    14. Berk, Jonathan B. & van Binsbergen, Jules H., 2015. "Measuring skill in the mutual fund industry," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(1), pages 1-20.
    15. Glode, Vincent & Green, Richard C., 2011. "Information spillovers and performance persistence for hedge funds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(1), pages 1-17, July.
    16. Ariadna Dumitrescu & Javier Gil-Bazo, 2012. "Market Frictions, Investor Sophistication and Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," ESADE Working Papers 2013-1, ESADE Business School, Group for Research in Economics and Finance (GREF), revised Mar 2013.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors

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