IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/11684.html

The Labor Market and Macro Volatility: A Nonstationary General-Equilibrium Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Robert E. Hall

Abstract

The evolution of the aggregate labor market is far from smooth. I investigate the success of a macro model in replicating the observed levels of volatility of unemployment and other key variables. I take variations in productivity growth and in exogenous product demand (government purchases plus net exports) as the primary exogenous sources of fluctuations. The macro model embodies new ideas about the labor market, all based on equilibrium - the models I consider do not rest on inefficiency in the use of labor caused by an inappropriate wage. I find that non-standard features of the labor market are essential for understanding the volatility of unemployment. These models include simple equilibrium wage stickiness, where the sticky wage is an equilibrium selection rule. A second model based on modern bargaining theory delivers a different kind of stickiness and has a unique equilibrium. A third model posits fluctuations in matching efficiency that may arise from variations over time in the information about prospective jobs among job-seekers. Reasonable calibrations of each of the three models match the observed volatility of unemployment.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert E. Hall, 2005. "The Labor Market and Macro Volatility: A Nonstationary General-Equilibrium Analysis," NBER Working Papers 11684, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:11684
    Note: EFG LS
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w11684.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lucas, Deborah J., 1994. "Asset pricing with undiversifiable income risk and short sales constraints: Deepening the equity premium puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 325-341, December.
    2. Kenneth L. Judd, 1998. "Numerical Methods in Economics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262100711, December.
    3. Alexopoulos, Michelle, 2004. "Unemployment and the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 277-298, March.
    4. Robert Shimer, 2005. "The Cyclical Behavior of Equilibrium Unemployment and Vacancies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 25-49, March.
    5. Hall, Robert E, 1988. "Intertemporal Substitution in Consumption," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 339-357, April.
    6. Robert E. Hall, 1987. "Consumption," NBER Working Papers 2265, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Merz, Monika, 1995. "Search in the labor market and the real business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 269-300, November.
    8. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-1445, November.
    9. Andolfatto, David, 1996. "Business Cycles and Labor-Market Search," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(1), pages 112-132, March.
    10. Dale T. Mortensen & Christopher A. Pissarides, 1994. "Job Creation and Job Destruction in the Theory of Unemployment," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 61(3), pages 397-415.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Francesco Zanetti, 2006. "Labor Market Frictions into Staggered Wage Contracts," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 5(13), pages 1-7.
    2. Wallis, Kenneth F., 2008. "Macroeconomic modelling in central banks in Latin America," Documentos de Proyectos 3627, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    3. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:5:y:2006:i:13:p:1-7 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Cheremukhin, Anton A. & Restrepo-Echavarria, Paulina, 2014. "The labor wedge as a matching friction," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 71-92.
    5. Di Nola, Alessandro, 2015. "Capital Misallocation during the Great Recession," MPRA Paper 68289, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Coles, Melvyn G. & Mortensen, Dale T., 2015. "The response of employment and wages to aggregate shocks: On-the-job search effect," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 7-17.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Robert E. Hall, 2006. "The labor market and macro volatility: a nonstationary general-equilibrium analysis," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    2. Athreya, Kartik B., 2014. "Big Ideas in Macroeconomics: A Nontechnical View," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262019736, December.
    3. Sergio Rebelo, 2005. "Real Business Cycle Models: Past, Present, and Future," NBER Working Papers 11401, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Morten O. Ravn, 2008. "The Consumption-Tightness Puzzle," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2006, pages 9-63, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Pedro Silos & Enchuan Shao, 2007. "Uninsurable Individual Risk and the Cyclical Behavior of Unemployment and Vacancies," 2007 Meeting Papers 420, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    6. Albertini, Julien & Poirier, Arthur, 2014. "Unemployment benefits extensions at the zero lower bound on nominal interest rate," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2014-019, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    7. Shigeru Fujita, 2004. "Vacancy persistence," Working Papers 04-23, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    8. Kudoh, Noritaka & Miyamoto, Hiroaki, 2023. "Do general equilibrium effects matter for labor market dynamics?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    9. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2014-019 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Shigeru Fujita, 2011. "Dynamics of worker flows and vacancies: evidence from the sign restriction approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 89-121, January/F.
    11. Antonella Trigari, 2006. "The Role of Search Frictions and Bargaining for Inflation Dynamics," Working Papers 304, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    12. Berger, Johannes & Strohner, Ludwig, 2020. "Documentation of the PUblic Policy Model for Austria and other European countries (PUMA)," Research Papers 11, EcoAustria – Institute for Economic Research.
    13. Costain, James S. & Reiter, Michael, 2008. "Business cycles, unemployment insurance, and the calibration of matching models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1120-1155, April.
    14. Hashimoto, Ken-ichi & Ono, Yoshiyasu & Schlegl, Matthias, 2023. "Structural unemployment, underemployment, and secular stagnation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    15. Alejandro Justiniano & Claudio Michelacci, 2011. "The Cyclical Behavior of Equilibrium Unemployment and Vacancies in the US and Europe," NBER Working Papers 17429, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Bodenstein, Martin & Kamber, Güneş & Thoenissen, Christoph, 2018. "Commodity prices and labour market dynamics in small open economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 170-184.
    17. Buss, Ginters, 2015. "Search-and-matching frictions and labor market dynamics in Latvia," Dynare Working Papers 45, CEPREMAP.
    18. Reinout De Bock, 2007. "Investment-Specific Technology Shocks and Labor Market Frictions," Working Paper Research 108, National Bank of Belgium.
    19. David Cook & Hiromi Nosaka, 2006. "Dual labor markets and business cycles," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue jun.
    20. Julen Esteban-Pretel & Elisa Faraglia, 2005. "Monetary Shocks in a Model with Loss of Skills," 2005 Meeting Papers 328, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    21. Gibson, John & Heutel, Garth, 2023. "Pollution and labor market search externalities over the business cycle," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:11684. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.