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Exchange Rates and Portfolio Balance

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  • John R. Martin
  • Paul R. Masson

Abstract

An open economy portfolio balance model, describing allocation among money, a domestic bond, and a traded foreign currency bond is developed for a world of many countries. A special role is attributed to the dollar, namely that all internationally traded bonds are denominated in that currency. It is shown that in the short run with real variables exogenous and expectations static, stability requires that all countries except the U.S. be net creditors in dollar-denominated bonds. What data are available on inter-country claims suggest that some countries may well be net debtors abroad in foreign currency. In particular, if one excludes direct investment claims, private claims on the rest of the world by Japan and Canada have been negative over the period of floating rates since 1973. However, some preliminary reduced-form regression equations for the dollar exchange rates of these two countries do not support the implications of the portfolio balance model in the debtor case. On the other hand, an equation for a composite of Western European currencies (by our calculations, this group of countries is a net creditor) gives more promising results.

Suggested Citation

  • John R. Martin & Paul R. Masson, 1979. "Exchange Rates and Portfolio Balance," NBER Working Papers 0377, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:0377
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Basevi, G., 1973. "Balances of payments and exchange markets : A lost correspondence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 309-328, December.
    2. Tobin, James, 1969. "A General Equilibrium Approach to Monetary Theory," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 1(1), pages 15-29, February.
    3. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-1176, December.
    4. Basevi, Giorgio & De Grauwe, Faul, 1977. "Vicious and virtuous circles: A theoretical analysis and a policy proposal for managing exchange rates," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 277-301.
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    Cited by:

    1. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1983. "Exchange rates, inflation, and the sterilization problem: Germany, 1975-1981," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(1-2), pages 161-189.
    2. Moura, Marcelo L. , & Lima, Adauto R. S. & Mendonça, Rodrigo M., 2008. "Exchange Rate and Fundamentals: The Case of Brazil," Insper Working Papers wpe_114, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
    3. Sergiy TKACH, 2014. "The Evolution Of Currency Relations In The Light Of Major Exchange Rate Adjustment Theories," EcoForum, "Stefan cel Mare" University of Suceava, Romania, Faculty of Economics and Public Administration - Economy, Business Administration and Tourism Department., vol. 3(2), pages 1-12, July.
    4. Peter Isard, 1980. "Factors determining exchange rates: the roles of relative price levels, balances of payments, interest rates and risk," International Finance Discussion Papers 171, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Tony Makin, 2007. "China's Rapid Growth, Yuan Misalignment and Global Imbalances," DEGIT Conference Papers c012_012, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
    6. Peter Isard, 1980. "Factors determining exchange rates: the roles of relative price levels, balances of payments, interest rates and risk," BIS Working Papers 4, Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Moura, Marcelo L. & Lima, Adauto R. S., 2007. "Empirical exchange rate models fit: Evidence from the Brazilian economy," Insper Working Papers wpe_87, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
    8. Peter Isard, 1982. "An accounting framework and some issues for modelling how exchange rates respond to the news," International Finance Discussion Papers 200, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    9. Joseph Bisignano & Kevin Hoover, 1982. "Some suggested improvements to a simple portfolio balance model of exchange rate determination with special reference to the U. S. dollar/Canadian dollar rate," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 118(1), pages 19-38, March.

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