IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/0294.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

How Important is Disaggregation in Structural Models of Interest Rate Determination?

Author

Listed:
  • Benjamin M. Friedman

Abstract

The results presented below demonstrate that the structural modeling approach to interest rate determination not only stands apart from the sectoral disaggregation question conceptually but also performs fairly well without sectoral disaggregation empirically. This paper presents estimation and dynamic simulation results for an aggregated equivalent to the disaggregated model of the determination of bond yields developed in Friedman (1977; 1979). Instead of six bond demand and two bond supply equations, here there are but one demand and one supply equation. The empirical results show that, while disaggregation is of value in structural interest rate modeling (that is, the disaggregated model outperforms the aggregated one), even the aggregated structural model performs very well in comparison with familiar unrestricted reduced-form term structure equations.

Suggested Citation

  • Benjamin M. Friedman, 1978. "How Important is Disaggregation in Structural Models of Interest Rate Determination?," NBER Working Papers 0294, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:0294
    Note: ME
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w0294.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Friedman, Benjamin M & Roley, V Vance, 1979. "Investors' Portfolio Behavior under Alternative Models of Long-Term Interest Rate Expectations: Unitary, Rational, or Autoregressive," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(6), pages 1475-1497, November.
    2. repec:bla:econom:v:40:y:1973:i:157:p:12-43 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Friedman, Benjamin M, 1977. "Financial Flow Variables and the Short-Run Determination of Long-Term Interest Rates," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(4), pages 661-689, August.
    4. Feldstein, Martin S & Eckstein, Otto, 1970. "The Fundamental Determinants of the Interest Rate," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 52(4), pages 363-375, November.
    5. Feldstein, Martin S & Chamberlain, Gary, 1973. "Multimarket Expectations and the Rate of Interest," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 5(4), pages 873-902, November.
    6. Friedman, Benjamin Morton, 1977. "Financial Flow Variables and the Short-Run Determination of Long-Term Interest Rates," Scholarly Articles 4554309, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    7. Fair, Ray C, 1970. "The Estimation of Simultaneous Equation Models with Lagged Endogenous Variables and First Order Serially Correlated Errors," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 38(3), pages 507-516, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Christopher J. Green & Victor Murinde, 2003. "Flow of funds: implications for research on financial sector development and the real economy," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(8), pages 1015-1036.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Benjamin M. Friedman, 1981. "Debt Management Policy, Interest Rates, and Economic Activity," NBER Working Papers 0830, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Martin Feldstein, 1983. "Fiscal Policies, Inflation, and Capital Formation," NBER Chapters, in: Inflation, Tax Rules, and Capital Formation, pages 61-80, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Benjamin M. Friedman, 1980. "Effects of Shifting Saving Patterns on Interest Rates and Economic Activity," NBER Working Papers 0587, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Benjamin M. Friedman, 1978. "Price Inflation, Portfolio Choice, and Nominal Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 0235, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Benjamin M. Friedman, 1985. "The Substitutability of Debt and Equity Securities," NBER Chapters, in: Corporate Capital Structures in the United States, pages 197-238, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. David G. Hartman, 1980. "International Effects on the U.S. Capital Market," NBER Working Papers 0581, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. V. Vance Roley, 1980. "A Disaggregated Structural Model of the Treasury Securities, Corporate Bond, and Equity Markets: Estimation and Simulation Results," NBER Technical Working Papers 0007, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Alho, Kari, . "Analysis of Financial Markets and Central Bank Policy in the Flow-of-Funds Framework. An Application to the Case of Finland," ETLA A, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy, number 12, June.
    9. V. Vance Roley, 1980. "The Effect of Federal Debt Management Policy on Corporate Bond and Equity Yields," NBER Working Papers 0586, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Carl E. Walsh, 1981. "Measurement Error and the Flow of Funds Accounts: Estimates of HouseholdAsset Demand Equations," NBER Working Papers 0732, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. N. Gregory Mankiw & Jeffrey A. Miron, 1986. "The Changing Behavior of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 101(2), pages 211-228.
    12. Yvon Fauvel & Alain Paquet & Christian Zimmermann, 1999. "A Survey on Interest Rate Forecasting," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 87, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal.
    13. V. Vance Roley, 1980. "Symmetry Restrictions in a System of Financial Asset Demands: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis," NBER Working Papers 0593, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Sinai, Allen, 2006. "Deficits, expected deficits, financial markets, and the economy," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 79-101, March.
    15. Byeongseon Seo, 2000. "Nonlinear Mean Reversion In The Term Structure Of Interest Rates," Computing in Economics and Finance 2000 121, Society for Computational Economics.
    16. Benjamin M. Friedman & V. Vance Roley, 1981. "Structural Models of Interest Rate Determination and Portfolio Behavior in the Corporate and Government Bond Markets," NBER Working Papers 0205, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. V. Vance Roley, 1985. "Money Demand Predictability," NBER Working Papers 1580, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Benjamin M. Friedman, 1979. "The Determination of Long-Term Interest Rates: Implications for Monetary and Fiscal Policies," NBER Working Papers 0366, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Bekdache, Basma, 2001. "Term Premia and the Maturity Composition of the Federal Debt: New Evidence from the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(7), pages 519-539, November.
    20. Benjamin M. Friedman, 1978. "Interest Rate Expectations Versus Forward Rates: Evidence From An Expectations Survey," NBER Working Papers 0295, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:0294. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.