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International Reserves Under Alternative Exchange Rate Regimes and Aspects of The Economics of Managed Float

  • Jacob A. Frenkel
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    This paper contains an analysis of the role of international reserves under a regime of pegged exchange rates and under a regime of managed floating. It presents evidence on the stability of the demand for reserves during the periods 1963-72 and 1973-75. It is shown that the demand for reserves by developed countries differs from that of less-developed countries and that the system underwent a structural change by the end of 1972. In view of the drastic change in the international monetary system, the extent of the structural change has not been as large as might have been expected, thus leading to the observation that economic behavior seems to be more stable than legal arrangements. From the policy perspective it follows that the problems concerning the role of the International Monetary Fund in this context are as relevant at the present as they were in the past. The paper concludes with a sketch of a stochastic framework for the analysis of the optimal degree of managed floating. And its purpose is to suggest an additional set of variables which might be incorporated into the specification of the demand for international reserves. It is shown that the optimal degree of exchange rate flexibility depends on the stochastic nature of the shocks that the economy faces. The stochastic characteristics of the shocks include a distinction between real and monetary shocks, domestic and foreign shocks and depend on the covariances among the various shocks.

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    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w0287.pdf
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    Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 0287.

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    Date of creation: Oct 1978
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    Publication status: published as Frenkel, J. A. "The Demand for International Reserves under Pegged and Flexible Exchange Rate Regimes." The Functioning of Floating Exchange Rates: Theory, Evidence, and Policy Implications, edited by David Bigman and Teizo Taya, pp. 169-195. Cambridge: Ballinger Publishing Co., 1980.
    Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:0287
    Note: ITI IFM
    Contact details of provider: Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
    Phone: 617-868-3900
    Web page: http://www.nber.org
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    1. William Poole, 1970. "Optimal choice of monetary policy instruments in a simple stochastic macro model," Staff Studies 57, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. R. Dornbusch, 1975. "The Theory of Flexible Exchange Rate Regimes and Macroeconomic Policy," Working papers 165, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
    3. Grubel, Herbert G, 1971. "The Demand for International Reserves: A Critical Review of the Literature," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 1148-66, December.
    4. T. J. Courchene & G. M. Youssef, 1967. "The Demand for International Reserves," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75, pages 404.
    5. Gray, Jo Anna, 1976. "Wage indexation: A macroeconomic approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 221-235, April.
    6. Kelly, Michael G, 1970. "The Demand for International Reserves," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 60(4), pages 655-67, September.
    7. Rudiger Dornbusch & Paul Krugman, 1976. "Felxible Exchange Rates in the Short Run," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 7(3), pages 537-584.
    8. Mussa, Michael, 1976. " The Exchange Rate, the Balance of Payments and Monetary and Fiscal Policy under a Regime of Controlled Floating," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 78(2), pages 229-48.
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