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Les cycles économiques et la science économique

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  • TREMBLAY, Rodrigue

Abstract

Cette communication situe la théorie des grands cycles économiques dans le contexte général des économies de marché. Il y est postulé que le cycle financier et économique international de longue période (50-60 ans) n'est pas une aberration statistique, mais est le résultat de conditions institutionnelles, politiques, financières et économiques récurrentes dans l'économie mondiale. Il y est proposé comme hypothèse que la source des cycles financiers et économiques de longue durée origine d'un déréglement monétaire, lequel met en marche un processus auto-généré de sur-endettement, d'inflation des actifs financiers, de sur-investissement généralisé dans les équipements et de sur-production. Ce processus se résorbe par une liquidation des dettes, une déflation monétaire et par une contraction de l'activité économique, pouvant résulter en une récession alongée ou une dépression économique. L'information imparfaite et l'asymétrie dans l'information expliquent les erreurs de décisions des firmes à différentes périodes du grand cycle économique. Les chocs qui provoquent ces erreurs peuvent être géopolitiques (guerres), économiques, monétaires ou financiers. Les guerres sont des facteurs déclencheurs du grand cycle d'inflation-désinflation-déflation. (Communication pour le 53ème congrès de l'Association Internationale des économistes de langue française AIELF, Athènes mai 2003)

Suggested Citation

  • TREMBLAY, Rodrigue, 2003. "Les cycles économiques et la science économique," Cahiers de recherche 2003-03, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    • Handle: RePEc:mtl:montde:2003-03
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/1866/484
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jonathan P. Goldstein, 1999. "The Existence, Endogeneity, and Synchronization of Long Waves: Structural Time Series Model Estimates," Review of Radical Political Economics, Union for Radical Political Economics, vol. 31(4), pages 61-101, December.
    2. Tremblay, R., 1987. "The Discipline of Economics and Economic Cycles," Cahiers de recherche 8732, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    3. Joseph E. Stiglitz, 2002. "Information and the Change in the Paradigm in Economics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(3), pages 460-501, June.
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