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Semiparametric estimation of duration models when the parameters are subject to inequality constraints and the error distribution is unknown

Author

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  • Kulan Ranasinghe

    ()

  • Mervyn J. Silvapulle

    ()

Abstract

The parameters in duration models are usually estimated by a Quasi Maximum Likelihood Estimator [QMLE]. This estimator is efficient if the errors are iid and exponentially distributed. Otherwise, it may not be the most efficient. Motivated by this, a class of estimators has been introduced by Drost and Werker (2004). Their estimator is asymptotically most efficient when the error distribution is unknown. However, the practical relevance of their method remains to be evaluated. Further, although some parameters in several common duration models are known to be nonnegative, this estimator may turn out to be negative. This paper addresses these two issues. We propose a new semiparametric estimator when there are inequality constraints on parameters, and a simulation study evaluates the two semiparametric estimators. The results lead us to conclude the following when the error distribution is unknown: (i) If there are no inequality constraints on parameters then the Drost-Werker estimator is better than the QMLE, and (ii) if there are inequality constraints on parameters then the estimator proposed in this paper is better than the Drost-Werker estimator and the QMLE. In conclusion, this paper recommends estimators that are better than the often used QMLE for estimating duration models.

Suggested Citation

  • Kulan Ranasinghe & Mervyn J. Silvapulle, 2008. "Semiparametric estimation of duration models when the parameters are subject to inequality constraints and the error distribution is unknown," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 1/08, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  • Handle: RePEc:msh:ebswps:2008-1
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    File URL: http://www.buseco.monash.edu.au/ebs/pubs/wpapers/2008/wp1-08.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Shyamal D. Peddada & David B. Dunson & Xiaofeng Tan, 2005. "Estimation of order-restricted means from correlated data," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 92(3), pages 703-715, September.
    2. Fernandes, Marcelo & Grammig, Joachim, 2006. "A family of autoregressive conditional duration models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 130(1), pages 1-23, January.
    3. Shyamal D. Peddada & Joseph K. Haseman & Xiaofeng Tan & Greg Travlos, 2006. "Tests for a simple tree order restriction with application to dose-response studies," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 55(4), pages 493-506.
    4. Drost, Feike C & Werker, Bas J M, 2004. "Semiparametric Duration Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 22(1), pages 40-50, January.
    5. Newey, Whitney K, 1990. "Semiparametric Efficiency Bounds," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 5(2), pages 99-135, April-Jun.
    6. Engle, Robert F. & Russell, Jeffrey R., 1997. "Forecasting the frequency of changes in quoted foreign exchange prices with the autoregressive conditional duration model," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(2-3), pages 187-212, June.
    7. repec:adr:anecst:y:2000:i:60:p:05 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Robert F. Engle & Jeffrey R. Russell, 1998. "Autoregressive Conditional Duration: A New Model for Irregularly Spaced Transaction Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(5), pages 1127-1162, September.
    9. Hammou El Barmi & Hari Mukerjee, 2005. "Inferences Under a Stochastic Ordering Constraint: The k-Sample Case," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 100, pages 252-261, March.
    10. Rombouts, Jeroen V. K. & Bauwens, Luc, 2004. "Econometrics," Papers 2004,33, Humboldt University of Berlin, Center for Applied Statistics and Economics (CASE).
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Adaptive inference; Conditional duration model; Constrained inference; Efficient semiparametric estimation; Order restricted inference; Semiparametric efficiency bound.;

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies

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