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Macroeconomic Volatilities and the Labor Market: First Results from the Euro Experiment

Author

Listed:
  • Merkl, Christian

    (University of Erlangen-Nuremberg)

  • Schmitz, Tom

    (HEC Paris)

Abstract

This paper analyzes the effects of different labor market institutions on inflation and output volatility. The eurozone offers an unprecedented experiment for this exercise: since 1999, no national monetary policies have been implemented that could account for volatility differences across member states, but labor market characteristics have remained very diverse. We use a New Keynesian model with unemployment to predict the effects of different labor market institutions on macroeconomic volatilities. In our subsequent empirical estimations, we find that higher labor turnover costs have a statistically significant negative effect on output volatility, while replacement rates have a positive effect, both of which are in line with theory. While labor market institutions have a large effect on output volatility, they do not seem to have much of an effect on inflation volatility, which can also be rationalized by our theoretical model.

Suggested Citation

  • Merkl, Christian & Schmitz, Tom, 2010. "Macroeconomic Volatilities and the Labor Market: First Results from the Euro Experiment," IZA Discussion Papers 4924, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp4924
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    Cited by:

    1. Tim Schwarzmüller & Nikolai Stähler, 2013. "Reforming the labor market and improving competitiveness: an analysis for Spain using FiMod," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 4(4), pages 437-471, November.
    2. Ester Faia & Wolfgang Lechthaler & Christian Merkl, 2014. "Labor Selection, Turnover Costs, and Optimal Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(1), pages 115-144, February.
    3. Campolmi, Alessia & Faia, Ester, 2011. "Labor market institutions and inflation volatility in the euro area," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 793-812, May.
    4. Lochner Benjamin, 2024. "Employment Protection in Dual Labor Markets: Any Amplification of Macroeconomic Shocks?," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 24(1), pages 249-304, January.
    5. Leroy, Aurélien & Pop, Adrian, 2019. "Macro-financial linkages: The role of the institutional framework," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 75-97.
    6. Diwambuena, Josué & Fonseca, Raquel & Schubert, Stefan, 2025. "Labor market institutions, productivity, and the business cycle: An application to Italy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    7. Gartner, Hermann & Merkl, Christian & Rothe, Thomas, 2012. "Sclerosis and large volatilities: Two sides of the same coin," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(1), pages 106-109.
    8. Fabio Rumler & Johann Scharler, 2011. "Labor Market Institutions And Macroeconomic Volatility In A Panel Of Oecd Countries," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 58(3), pages 396-413, July.
    9. Fabrizio Mattesini & Lorenza Rossi, 2012. "Monetary Policy and Automatic Stabilizers: The Role of Progressive Taxation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(5), pages 825-862, August.
    10. Gnocchi, Stefano & Lagerborg, Andresa & Pappa, Evi, 2015. "Do labor market institutions matter for business cycles?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 299-317.
    11. Abbritti, Mirko & Weber, Sebastian, 2010. "Labor market institutions and the business cycle - unemployment rigidities vs. real wage rigidities," Working Paper Series 1183, European Central Bank.
    12. Gilbert L. Skillman, 2022. "The Nash bargaining solution in labor market analysis," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(3), pages 884-899, July.
    13. Bartels, Bernhard, 2009. "The monetary transmission mechanism in the euro area: A VAR-analysis for Austria and Germany," Kiel Advanced Studies Working Papers 452, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    14. CAMILLI, Andrea; LAGERBORG, Andresa, 2017. "Do Labor Market Institutions Matter for Fertility?," Economics Working Papers ECO 2017/07, European University Institute.
    15. Merkl, Christian, 2009. "The inflation-output tradeoff: which type of labor market rigidity is to be blamed?," Kiel Working Papers 1495, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    16. Oscar Bajo-Rubio & Burcu Berke, 2023. "Revisiting the effects of government size and labour market institutions on macroeconomic volatility: the case of the eurozone," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 12(1), pages 91-96.
    17. Maximilian Boeck & Christian Glocker, 2025. "The Role of Labor Market Institutions in Shaping Euro Area Monetary Policy Transmission," WIFO Working Papers 713, WIFO.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • J20 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - General

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