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The Price of BitCoin: GARCH Evidence from High Frequency Data

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Abstract

This is the first paper that estimates the price determinants of BitCoin in a Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity framework using high frequency data. Derived from a theoretical model, we estimate BitCoin transaction demand and speculative demand equations in a GARCH framework using hourly data for the period 2013-2018. In line with the theoretical model, our empirical results confirm that both the BitCoin transaction demand and speculative demand have a statistically significant impact on the BitCoin price formation. The BitCoin price responds negatively to the BitCoin velocity, whereas positive shocks to the BitCoin stock, interest rate and the size of the BitCoin economy exercise an upward pressure on the BitCoin price.

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  • d'Artis Kancs & Pavel Ciaian & Miroslava Rajcaniova, 2019. "The Price of BitCoin: GARCH Evidence from High Frequency Data," JRC Research Reports JRC115098, Joint Research Centre.
    • Handle: RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc115098
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    2. repec:cup:cbooks:9781107034662 is not listed on IDEAS
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    14. Pavel Ciaian & d'Artis Kancs & Miroslava Rajcaniova, 2018. "The Price of BitCoin: GARCH Evidence from High Frequency Data," Papers 1812.09452, arXiv.org.
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    Cited by:

    1. Pavel Ciaian & d'Artis Kancs & Miroslava Rajcaniova, 2021. "Interdependencies between Mining Costs, Mining Rewards and Blockchain Security," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 22(1), pages 25-62, May.
    2. Pavel Ciaian & d'Artis Kancs & Miroslava Rajcaniova, 2018. "The Price of BitCoin: GARCH Evidence from High Frequency Data," Papers 1812.09452, arXiv.org.
    3. Lyócsa, Štefan & Molnár, Peter & Plíhal, Tomáš & Širaňová, Mária, 2020. "Impact of macroeconomic news, regulation and hacking exchange markets on the volatility of bitcoin," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    4. Yuanyuan (Catherine) Chen, 2021. "Empirical analysis of bitcoin price," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 45(4), pages 692-715, October.
    5. Edson Z. Monte & Lucas B. Defanti, 2021. "Dynamic Interdependence and Volatility Transmission from the American to the Brazilian Stock Market," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 2021/09, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
    6. Venelina Nikolova & Juan E. Trinidad Segovia & Manuel Fernández-Martínez & Miguel Angel Sánchez-Granero, 2020. "A Novel Methodology to Calculate the Probability of Volatility Clusters in Financial Series: An Application to Cryptocurrency Markets," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(8), pages 1-15, July.
    7. Pavel Ciaian & d’Artis Kancs & Miroslava Rajcaniova, 2021. "The economic dependency of bitcoin security," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(49), pages 5738-5755, October.
    8. Ahmed, Walid M.A., 2022. "Robust drivers of Bitcoin price movements: An extreme bounds analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    9. Murat Akkaya, 2021. "The Determinants of the Volatility in Cryptocurrency Markets: The Bitcoin Case," Bogazici Journal, Review of Social, Economic and Administrative Studies, Bogazici University, Department of Economics, vol. 35(1), pages 87-97.
    10. Al-Shboul, Mohammad & Assaf, Ata & Mokni, Khaled, 2022. "When bitcoin lost its position: Cryptocurrency uncertainty and the dynamic spillover among cryptocurrencies before and during the COVID-19 pandemic," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Virtual currencies; BitCoin returns; volatility; price formation; GARCH; Digital Economy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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