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The price of Bitcoin: GARCH evidence from high-frequency data

Author

Listed:
  • Pavel Ciaian
  • d’Artis Kancs
  • Miroslava Rajcaniova

Abstract

This is the first paper that estimates the price determinants of Bitcoin in a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) framework using high-frequency data. Derived from a theoretical model, we structurally estimate Bitcoin transaction demand and speculative demand models using hourly data for 2013–21. In line with the theoretical hypothesis, our empirical results confirm that both the Bitcoin transaction demand and speculative demand have a statistically significant impact on the Bitcoin price formation. The Bitcoin price responds negatively to the Bitcoin velocity, whereas positive shocks to the aggregate Bitcoin stock, interest rate and size of the Bitcoin economy exercise an upward pressure on the Bitcoin price.

Suggested Citation

  • Pavel Ciaian & d’Artis Kancs & Miroslava Rajcaniova, . "The price of Bitcoin: GARCH evidence from high-frequency data," Journal of Investment Strategies, Journal of Investment Strategies.
    • Handle: RePEc:rsk:journ6:7826931
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    2. Pavel Ciaian & d'Artis Kancs & Miroslava Rajcaniova, 2021. "Interdependencies between Mining Costs, Mining Rewards and Blockchain Security," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 22(1), pages 25-62, May.
    3. Daniel Pastorek & Peter Albrecht, 2025. "Risk Without Reward? The Introduction of Bitcoin Spot ETFs," MENDELU Working Papers in Business and Economics 2025-99, Mendel University in Brno, Faculty of Business and Economics.
    4. Yuanyuan (Catherine) Chen, 2021. "Empirical analysis of bitcoin price," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 45(4), pages 692-715, October.
    5. Pavel Ciaian & d’Artis Kancs & Miroslava Rajcaniova, 2021. "The economic dependency of bitcoin security," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(49), pages 5738-5755, October.
    6. José Manuel Carbó Martinez & Sergio Gorjón Rivas, 2024. "Determinants of the price of bitcoin: An analysis with machine learning and interpretability techniques," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Granular data: new horizons and challenges, volume 61, Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Murat Akkaya, 2021. "The Determinants of the Volatility in Cryptocurrency Markets: The Bitcoin Case," Bogazici Journal, Review of Social, Economic and Administrative Studies, Bogazici University, Department of Economics, vol. 35(1), pages 87-97.
    8. Lyócsa, Štefan & Molnár, Peter & Plíhal, Tomáš & Širaňová, Mária, 2020. "Impact of macroeconomic news, regulation and hacking exchange markets on the volatility of bitcoin," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    9. Edson Z. Monte & Lucas B. Defanti, 2021. "Dynamic Interdependence and Volatility Transmission from the American to the Brazilian Stock Market," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 2021/09, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
    10. Venelina Nikolova & Juan E. Trinidad Segovia & Manuel Fernández-Martínez & Miguel Angel Sánchez-Granero, 2020. "A Novel Methodology to Calculate the Probability of Volatility Clusters in Financial Series: An Application to Cryptocurrency Markets," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(8), pages 1-15, July.
    11. Ahmed, Walid M.A., 2022. "Robust drivers of Bitcoin price movements: An extreme bounds analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    12. Pavel Ciaian & d’Artis Kancs & Miroslava Rajcaniova, . "The price of Bitcoin: GARCH evidence from high-frequency data," Journal of Investment Strategies, Journal of Investment Strategies.
    13. Al-Shboul, Mohammad & Assaf, Ata & Mokni, Khaled, 2022. "When bitcoin lost its position: Cryptocurrency uncertainty and the dynamic spillover among cryptocurrencies before and during the COVID-19 pandemic," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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