The Millennium Development Goals post 2015: Towards a global social contract

This paper deals with the outlook for the interrelated issues of global economic governance and the efficacy of development policies. These are relevant issues in view of the post-2015 Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). My main point is that the formulation of the post-2015 MDGs will have to recognize the new geopolitical and geoeconomic realities that follow from the unprecedented growth of the so-called emerging markets since the 1990s. These economies do still have many characteristics of developing countries especially in remote and rural areas, but at the same time have very large modern sectors that compete successfully on the world markets. These successes are reflected in their sharply increasing shares in Gross Planet Product. Indeed, given the current growth slow-down in the advanced economies and the decoupled (and continuing) growth in the so-called BRIICS-countries (Brazil, Russia, India, Indonesia, China and South Africa) it is likely that 2015 will mark the historic fact that the developed countries no longer have a majority share in global production (Figure 1). It is therefore clear that the emerging markets will have (and, indeed, should have) a much more substantial role in global governance structures, including the international organizations. The issue at stake is whether this is favorable or unfavorable for global governance. Moreover, it is pertinent to investigate the implications of the changing economic conditions and to seek ways to make the best use of the new geopolitical and geoeconomic realities.