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Wie stark kann die deutsche Wirtschaft wachsen?

Author

Listed:
  • Gustav A. Horn

    (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK))

  • Silke Tober

    (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK))

Abstract

Das Produktionspotenzial zeigt an, wie schnell eine Volkswirtschaft mittelfristig wachsen kann, ohne dass es zu inflationären Spannungen kommt. Die Produktionslücke ? also der Unterschied zwischen dem Produktionspotenzial und der tatsächlichen Produktion ? misst den Auslastungsgrad der Kapazitäten und damit den wirtschaftspolitischen Stabilisierungsbedarf. Entsprechend wird er als Indikator für den Inflationsdruck verwendet. Dieses theoretisch sinnvolle Konzept weist in der Praxis jedoch gravierende Schwächen auf. So sind alle gängigen Schätzungen des Produktionspotenzials mit einer erheblichen Revisionsanfälligkeit behaftet. Ein empirisch so ungenaues Konzept taugt aus Sicht der IMK-Wissenschaftler nicht als mittelfristige wirtschaftspolitische Orientierungsgröße. Zur Früherkennung von Überhitzungstendenzen sollten sich Zentralbanken stärker auf die Lohnstückkostenentwicklung stützen.

Suggested Citation

  • Gustav A. Horn & Silke Tober, 2007. "Wie stark kann die deutsche Wirtschaft wachsen?," IMK Report 17-2007, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:imk:report:17-2007
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    File URL: http://www.boeckler.de/pdf/p_imk_report_17_2007.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Andrea Bassanini & Romain Duval, 2006. "Employment Patterns in OECD Countries: Reassessing the Role of Policies and Institutions," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 486, OECD Publishing.
    2. Laurence Ball & N. Gregory Mankiw, 2002. "The NAIRU in Theory and Practice," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 16(4), pages 115-136, Fall.
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:clr:wugarc:y:2011:v:37i:1p:51 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Gustav A. Horn & Fabian Lindner & Silke Tober & Andrew Watt, 2012. "Quo vadis Krise? Zwischenbilanz und Konzept für einen stabilen Euroraum," IMK Report 75-2012, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    3. Gustav A. Horn & Sebastian Gechert & Alexander Herzog-Stein & Katja Rietzler & Silke Tober & Sabine Stephan & Andrew Watt, 2013. "Inmitten der Krise des Euroraums - Herausforderungen für die Wirtschaftspolitik 2013," IMK Report 79-2013, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    4. Gustav A. Horn & Fabian Lindner & Silke Tober & Andrew Watt, 2012. "Where now for the euro area crisis? Interim assessment and a model for a stable euro area," IMK Report 75e-2012, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    5. Gustav A. Horn & Heike Joebges & Lothar Kamp & Alexandra Krieger & Sebastian Sick & Silke Tober, 2009. "Gesamtwirtschaftliche Stabilität durch bessere Regulierung - Vorschläge für eine Neuordnung der Finanzmärkte," IMK Report 36-2009, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    6. Gustav A. Horn & Alexander Herzog-Stein & Ansgar Rannenberg & Katja Rietzler & Silke Tober & Peter Hohlfeld & Fabian Lindner & Sabine Stephan, 2013. "Krise überwunden? Prognose der wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung 2013/2014," IMK Report 86-2013, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    7. Silke Tober, 2011. "Makroökonomische Politik zur Bewältigung der Krise im Euroraum: Die Rolle Deutschlands," Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft - WuG, Kammer für Arbeiter und Angestellte für Wien, Abteilung Wirtschaftswissenschaft und Statistik, vol. 37(1), pages 51-68.
    8. Bach, Hans-Uwe & Spitznagel, Eugen, 2012. "Kosten der Arbeitslosigkeit: Druck auf öffentliche Budgets lässt nach (Costs of unemployment: decreasing pressure on the state's budgets)," IAB-Kurzbericht 201208, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    9. Gustav A. Horn & Alexander Herzog-Stein & Ansgar Rannenberg & Katja Rietzler & Silke Tober & Rudolf Zwiener, 2014. "Wirtschaftspolitische Herausforderungen 2014," IMK Report 90-2014, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    10. Gustav A. Horn & Alexander Herzog-Stein & Peter Hohlfeld & Fabian Lindner & Ansgar Rannenberg & Katja Rietzler & Sabine Stephan & Thomas Theobald & Silke Tober, 2014. "Der gefährdete Aufschwung - Prognose der Wirtschafzlichen Entwicklung 2014/2015," IMK Report 98-2014, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.

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