IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imk/pbrief/218-2026.html

Gefühlte Kaufkraftverluste belasten privaten Konsum und Vertrauen in die Regierung - Erkenntnisse aus einer Online-Umfrage

Author

Listed:
  • Jan Behringer

    (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK))

  • Lukas Endres

    (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK))

Abstract

Eine Online-Umfrage des IMK zeigt, dass bei einer Mehrheit der Menschen in Deutschland zum Jahresende 2025 der Eindruck besteht, sich immer noch weniger leisten zu können als vor fünf Jahren, obwohl die inflationsbedingten Realeinkommensverluste der Jahre 2021 bis 2023 im gesamtwirtschaftlichen Durchschnitt wieder aufgeholt wurden. Diese Wahrnehmung geht mit anhaltenden Sorgen um die zukünftige Entwicklung der Lebenshaltungskosten, geplanten Konsumeinschränkungen und einem geringeren Vertrauen in die Bundesregierung einher. Die Ergebnisse liefern eine mögliche Erklärung, warum sich der private Konsum trotz wiederhergestellter Realeinkommen bislang nur schwach entwickelt. Mit Blick auf den jüngsten Energiepreisanstieg infolge des Iran-Kriegs besteht zudem das Risiko, dass die gestiegenen Kraftstoffpreise die Sorgen vor einer Verschlechterung der eigenen Kaufkraft verstärken und dadurch die Konsumbereitschaft zusätzlich dämpfen.

Suggested Citation

  • Jan Behringer & Lukas Endres, 2026. "Gefühlte Kaufkraftverluste belasten privaten Konsum und Vertrauen in die Regierung - Erkenntnisse aus einer Online-Umfrage," IMK Policy Brief 218-2026, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:imk:pbrief:218-2026
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.boeckler.de/pdf/p_imk_pb_218_2026.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ulrike Malmendier & Stefan Nagel, 2016. "Learning from Inflation Experiences," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(1), pages 53-87.
    2. Roberto Colarieti & Pierfrancesco Mei & Stefanie Stantcheva, 2024. "The How and Why of Household Reactions to Income Shocks," NBER Working Papers 32191, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Francesco D’Acunto & Ulrike Malmendier & Juan Ospina & Michael Weber, 2021. "Exposure to Grocery Prices and Inflation Expectations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 129(5), pages 1615-1639.
    4. Georganas, Sotiris & Healy, Paul J. & Li, Nan, 2014. "Frequency bias in consumers׳ perceptions of inflation: An experimental study," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 144-158.
    5. Colarieti, Roberto & Mei, Pierfrancesco & Stantcheva, Stefanie, 2024. "The How and Why of Household Reactions to Income Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 18865, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jessica Piccolo & Alessia Russo & Eleonora Granziera & Efrem Castelnuovo, 2025. "Households’ Macroeconomic Beliefs: The Role of Education," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0316, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
    2. Ulrike Malmendier & Alexandra Steiny Wellsjo, 2024. "Rent or Buy? Inflation Experiences and Homeownership within and across Countries," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 79(3), pages 1977-2023, June.
    3. Giovanni Di Bartolomeo & Francesco Ferlaino & Carolina Serpieri, 2026. "Inflation Inattention and the Consumption Gap," Working Papers in Public Economics 280, Department of Economics and Law, Sapienza University of Rome.
    4. Akgunduz, Yusuf Emre & Cilasun, Seyit Mumin & Deryol, Ahmet & Tumen, Semih, 2026. "Echoes of Hyperinflation: The Link Between past Exposure and Formation of Expectations," IZA Discussion Papers 18543, IZA Network @ LISER.
    5. Granziera, Eleonora & Larsen, Vegard H. & Meggiorini, Greta & Melosi, Leonardo, 2025. "Speaking of Inflation: The Influence of Fed Speeches on Expectations," CEPR Discussion Papers 20038, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    6. Jarko Fidrmuc & Christa Hainz & Werner Hölzl, 2024. "Individual credit market experience and beliefs about bank lending policy: evidence from a firm survey," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 126(2), pages 387-414, April.
    7. Wehrhöfer, Nils, 2023. "Energy prices and inflation expectations: Evidence from households and firms," Discussion Papers 28/2023, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    8. Abildgren, Kim & Kuchler, Andreas, 2021. "Revisiting the inflation perception conundrum," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    9. Hajdini, Ina & Knotek, Edward S. & Leer, John & Pedemonte, Mathieu & Rich, Robert & Schoenle, Raphael, 2024. "Indirect consumer inflation expectations: Theory and evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(S).
    10. Becker, Christoph & Dürsch, Peter & Eife, Thomas A. & Glas, Alexander, 2023. "Households' probabilistic inflation expectations in high-inflation regimes," ZEW Discussion Papers 23-072, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    11. Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Dmitriy Sergeyev, 2021. "Zero Lower Bound on Inflation Expectations," NBER Working Papers 29496, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Lovisa Reiche & Nicolò Maffei-Faccioli, 2026. "Divergent Perceptions, Divergent Pay: Inflation and the Gender Wage Gap," CESifo Working Paper Series 12835, CESifo.
    13. Dräger, Lena & Gründler, Klaus & Potrafke, Niklas, 2025. "Political shocks and inflation expectations: Evidence from the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    14. James Mitchell & Saeed Zaman, 2023. "The Distributional Predictive Content of Measures of Inflation Expectations," Working Papers 23-31, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    15. Ali Inayat, 2023. "Household Inflation Expectations Uncertainty: A Case for Pakistan," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 28(1), pages 1-39, Jan-June.
    16. Granziera, Eleanora & Larsen, Wegard H. & Meggiorini, Greta & Melosi, Leonardo, 2025. "Speaking of Inflation : The Influence of Fed Speeches on Expectations," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1555, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    17. Peter Andre & Ingar Haaland & Christopher Roth & Mirko Wiederholt & Johannes Wohlfart, 2021. "Narratives about the Macroeconomy," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 127, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    18. Alessio Emanuele Biondo & Mauro Gallegati, 2026. "Inflation as an emergent phenomenon," Papers 2607.07864, arXiv.org.
    19. Pavlova, Lora, 2025. "Framing effects in consumer expectations surveys," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imk:pbrief:218-2026. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sabine Nemitz (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imkhbde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.