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Wage-Price Spirals: What is the Historical Evidence?

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Jorge A Alvarez
  • Mr. John C Bluedorn
  • Mr. Niels-Jakob H Hansen
  • Youyou Huang
  • Evgenia Pugacheva
  • Alexandre Sollaci

Abstract

How often have wage-price spirals occurred, and what has happened in their aftermath? We investigate this by creating a database of past wage-price spirals among a wide set of advanced economies going back to the 1960s. We define a wage-price spiral as an episode where at least three out of four consecutive quarters saw accelerating consumer prices and rising nominal wages. Perhaps surprisingly, only a small minority of such episodes were followed by sustained acceleration in wages and prices. Instead, inflation and nominal wage growth tended to stabilize, leaving real wage growth broadly unchanged. A decomposition of wage dynamics using a wage Phillips curve suggests that nominal wage growth normally stabilizes at levels that are consistent with observed inflation and labor market tightness. When focusing on episodes that mimic the recent pattern of falling real wages and tightening labor markets, declining inflation and nominal wage growth increases tended to follow – thus allowing real wages to catch up. We conclude that an acceleration of nominal wages should not necessarily be seen as a sign that a wage-price spiral is taking hold.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Jorge A Alvarez & Mr. John C Bluedorn & Mr. Niels-Jakob H Hansen & Youyou Huang & Evgenia Pugacheva & Alexandre Sollaci, 2022. "Wage-Price Spirals: What is the Historical Evidence?," IMF Working Papers 2022/221, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2022/221
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    Cited by:

    1. Lesch, Hagen, 2024. "Koordinierung von Geld- und Lohnpolitik: Was wir aus den Erfahrungen der 1970er Jahre lernen können," IW-Trends – Vierteljahresschrift zur empirischen Wirtschaftsforschung, Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft (IW) / German Economic Institute, vol. 51(1), pages 59-66.
    2. Kilian, Lutz & Zhou, Xiaoqing, 2023. "Oil Price Shocks and Inflation," CEPR Discussion Papers 18416, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Lucotte, Yannick & Pradines-Jobet, Florian, 2023. "The inflation loop is not a myth," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(PB).
    4. Ferri, Piero & Cristini, Annalisa & Tramontana, Fabio, 2023. "Meta-models of the Phillips curve and income distribution," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 213(C), pages 215-232.
    5. Lucio Gobbi & Ronny Mazzocchi & Roberto Tamborini, 2024. "When Should Central Banks Fear Inflation Expectations?," CESifo Working Paper Series 10966, CESifo.
    6. Leef H. Dierks, 2023. "Inflation, Monetary Policy and the Sacrifice Ratio:The Case of Southeast Asia," Working Papers wp50, South East Asian Central Banks (SEACEN) Research and Training Centre.
    7. Michal Franta & Jan Vlcek, 2024. "Wage-Price Spirals: A Risk-Based Approach," Working Papers 2024/1, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.
    8. Max Sina Knicker & Karl Naumann-Woleske & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Francesco Zamponi, 2023. "Post-COVID Inflation & the Monetary Policy Dilemma: An Agent-Based Scenario Analysis," Papers 2306.01284, arXiv.org, revised May 2025.
    9. Sánchez García, Javier & Galdeano Gómez, Emilio & Cruz Rambaud, Salvador, 2024. "Drivers of inflationary shocks and spillovers between Europe and the United States," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    10. Gobbi, Lucio & Mazzocchi, Ronny & Tamborini, Roberto, 2025. "Inflation shocks and the New Keynesian model: When should central banks fear inflation expectations?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    11. Ciambezi, Leonardo & Guerini, Mattia & Napoletano, Mauro & Roventini, Andrea, 2025. "Accounting for the multiple sources of inflation: An agent-based model investigation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    12. Di Nino, Virginia & Aprigliano, Valentina, 2024. "How income expectations adjust to inflation – a consumers’ expectations-revealed pass-through," Working Paper Series 2986, European Central Bank.
    13. Roberto Lampa & Gianmarco Oro, 2023. "Can the side effects of sanctions and energy inflation trigger the disintegration of the international monetary regime?," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 76(306), pages 225-242.
    14. Uxó, Jorge & Febrero, Eladio & Álvarez, Ignacio, 2025. "Prices, markups and wages: inflation and its distributive consequences in Spain, 2021-2023," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 179-192.
    15. Coccia, Samantha & Russo, Alberto, 2025. "Inflation, inequality and financial vulnerability: Monetary vs. fiscal policy in the face of an energy shock," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    16. Kremer, Elise & Reissl, Severin & Fierro, Luca E. & Emmerling, Johannes & Lamperti, Francesco & Roventini, Andrea, 2025. "Energy price shocks in the European Union: Macroeconomic impacts, distributional effects and policy responses," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).

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