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Corporate Sector Vulnerabilities in Ireland

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  • Nir Klein

Abstract

The paper uses both macro- and micro-level data to assess how has the financial health of the Irish non-financial corporate (NFC) sector changed in the post financial crisis period. The analysis suggests that vulnerabilities have generally declined in recent years, but the NFC sector and especially smaller domestic firms remain vulnerable. A sensitivity analysis indicates that a non-extreme shock, which comprises a decline in profitability and an increase in interest rates, is likely to push many firms into a vulnerable state and that the share of firms with interest cover ratio of lower than one would triple to nearly fifty percent, largely reflecting the deterioration in the financial health of small firms. In such a scenario, the share of risky debt would increase to the level observed during the financial crisis, resulting in a significant increase in new corporate defaults.

Suggested Citation

  • Nir Klein, 2016. "Corporate Sector Vulnerabilities in Ireland," IMF Working Papers 2016/211, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2016/211
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cussen, Mary & O'Leary, Brídín, 2013. "Why are Irish Non-Financial Corporations so Indebted?," Quarterly Bulletin Articles, Central Bank of Ireland, pages 104-118, January.
    2. Miss Mali Chivakul & Mr. Waikei R Lam, 2015. "Assessing China’s Corporate Sector Vulnerabilities," IMF Working Papers 2015/072, International Monetary Fund.
    3. McCann, Fergal, 2014. "Profiling the indebtedness of Irish SMEs," Economic Letters 03/EL/14, Central Bank of Ireland.
    4. Lawless, Martina & O’Connell, Brian & O’Toole, Conor, 2015. "SME recovery following a financial crisis: Does debt overhang matter?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 19(C), pages 45-59.
    5. Mr. Fabiano Rodrigues Rodrigues Bastos & Herman Kamil & Mr. Bennett W Sutton, 2015. "Corporate Financing Trends and Balance Sheet Risks in Latin America," IMF Working Papers 2015/010, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Carla Marques, 2022. "Modelling the financial situation of Portuguese firms using micro-data: a simulation for the COVID-19 pandemic," Working Papers o202203, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    2. Francisco Augusto & Márcio Mateus, 2021. "Portuguese firms’ financial vulnerability and excess debt in the context of the COVID-19 shock," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    3. McQuinn, John & McCann, Fergal, 2017. "The financial vernerability of Irish Small and Medium Enterprises, 2013 to 2017," Economic Letters 14/EL/17, Central Bank of Ireland.
    4. Luigi Infante & Tatiana Cesaroni & Riccardo De Bonis, 2020. "Firms' financial surpluses in advanced economies: the role of net foreign direct investments," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Using financial accounts, volume 51, Bank for International Settlements.

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