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Modeling the World Economic Outlook At the IMF: A Historical Review

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  • Mr. James M. Boughton

Abstract

The World Economic Outlook (WEO) exercise at the IMF evolved during the 1980s, partly in response to demands by policymakers in national finance ministries for objective and internationally comparable projections and policy scenarios. The exercise had begun as a staff initiative, encouraged by the Managing Director (Johannes Witteveen). Gradually, the Executive Board, the Interim Committee, the Group of Seven, and others came to view the discussion of the WEO documents as an important element in their efforts to keep abreast of world economic developments and prospects. Direct and indirect feedback from those discussions informed the staff as to how the exercise should be improved. Driven by this policy relevance, the WEO evolved from a decentralized project that was only haphazardly model-based into a more rigorous and coordinated exercise.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. James M. Boughton, 1997. "Modeling the World Economic Outlook At the IMF: A Historical Review," IMF Working Papers 1997/048, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:1997/048
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    Cited by:

    1. Teresa Leal & Javier J. Pérez & Mika Tujula & Jean-Pierre Vidal, 2008. "Fiscal Forecasting: Lessons from the Literature and Challenges," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 29(3), pages 347-386, September.
    2. Elena Ianchovichina & Terrie Walmsley, 2005. "Impact of China's WTO Accession on East Asia," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 23(2), pages 261-277, April.
    3. Bonatti, Luigi, 2002. "The effects of wage compression on unemployment and on the intersectoral distribution of employment: a dynamic model," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 127-144, June.
    4. den Butter, Frank A. G. & Morgan, Mary S., 1998. "What makes the models-policy interaction successful?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 443-475, July.
    5. El-Shagi, Makram & Schweinitz, Gregor von, 2018. "The joint dynamics of sovereign ratings and government bond yields," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 198-218.
    6. Lastunen, Jesse & Richiardi, Matteo, 2023. "Forecasting recovery from COVID-19 using financial data: An application to Vietnam," World Development Perspectives, Elsevier, vol. 30(C).
    7. Low, Patrick & Olarreaga, Marcelo & Suarez, Javier, 1998. "Does globalization cause a higher concentration of international trade and investment flows?," WTO Staff Working Papers ERAD-98-08, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    8. E. Grilli, 1999. "Some considerations on the reform of the international monetary and financial system," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 52(209), pages 195-237.
    9. Helmut Wagner & Wolfram Berger, 2004. "Globalization, Financial Volatility and Monetary Policy," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 163-184, June.
    10. Marchetti, Juan A., 2004. "Developing countries in the WTO services negotiations," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2004-06, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    11. U. Sacchetti, 1999. "Whither the US economy?," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 52(208), pages 69-94.
    12. Alba, Pedro & Bhattacharya, Amar & Claessens, Stijn & Ghosh, Swati & Hernandez, Leonardo, 1998. "Volatility and contagion in a financially integrated world : lessons from East Asia's recent experience," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2008, The World Bank.
    13. Ben Clift & Jim Tomlinson, 2012. "When rules started to rule: the IMF, neo-liberal economic ideas and economic policy change in Britain," Review of International Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(3), pages 477-500, August.
    14. Duguay, Pierre & Longworth, David, 1998. "Macroeconomic models and policy making at the bank of canada," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 357-375, July.

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