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Whither the US economy?

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  • U. SACCHETTI

Abstract

The economic performance of the US is viewed by the majority of professional analysts as being superior to that of other major industrialised countries. Some refer to the recent US experience as the “New Paradigm†, characterized by sustained economic growth, low inflation, low unemployment and low interest rates. The present work, however, highlights indications of a likely future performance which may well be less positive than the one portrayed by this ‘New Paradigm’. The author describes four underlying trends that show that the past economic performance in the US was largely the result of abnormal factors, and that they cannot be sustained. Furthermore, the US may in fact enter into a period of significant recession or stagflation in the future.

Suggested Citation

  • U. Sacchetti, 1999. "Whither the US economy?," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 52(208), pages 69-94.
    • Handle: RePEc:psl:bnlaqr:1999:13
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    File URL: http://ojs.uniroma1.it/index.php/PSLQuarterlyReview/article/view/10622/10506
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Donald P. Morgan & Ian Toll, 1997. "Bad debt rising," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 3(Mar).
    2. Francesca Eugeni, 1993. "Consumer debt and home equity borrowing," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 17(Mar), pages 2-13.
    3. Mr. James M. Boughton, 1997. "Modeling the World Economic Outlook At the IMF: A Historical Review," IMF Working Papers 1997/048, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Paolo Sylos Labini, 2003. "Prospects for the world economy," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 56(226), pages 179-206.
    2. Paolo Sylos Labini, 2009. "Prospects for the world economy," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 62(248-251), pages 59-86.
    3. Ugo Sacchetti, 2005. "The US economy: an update," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 58(232), pages 3-20.
    4. Ugo Sacchetti, 2005. "The US economy: an update," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 58(232), pages 3-20.
    5. Paolo Sylos Labini, 2003. "Le prospettive dell'economia mondiale," Moneta e Credito, Economia civile, vol. 56(223), pages 267-294.
    6. Paolo Sylos Labini, 2003. "Prospects for the world economy," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 56(226), pages 179-206.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    United States economic conditions;

    JEL classification:

    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General

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