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Capital Inflows and the Real Exchange Rate: Analytical Framework and Econometric Evidence

Author

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  • Pierre-Richard Agénor
  • Mr. Willy A Hoffmaister

Abstract

This paper examines the links between capital inflows and the real exchange rate under pegged exchange rates. The analytical framework is described, and a near-VAR model linking capital inflows, interest rate differentials, government spending, money base velocity, and the temporary component of the real exchange rate (TCRER) is estimated for Korea, Mexico, the Philippines, and Thailand. TCRER movements are associated only weakly with shocks to capital flows. Negative shocks to U.S. interest rates lead to capital inflows in Asia and a TCRER appreciation in the Philippines and Thailand. Positive shocks to government spending have a small but statistically significant effect on the TCRER for Korea.

Suggested Citation

  • Pierre-Richard Agénor & Mr. Willy A Hoffmaister, 1996. "Capital Inflows and the Real Exchange Rate: Analytical Framework and Econometric Evidence," IMF Working Papers 1996/137, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:1996/137
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    Cited by:

    1. Ramon Moreno, 1999. "Depreciation and recessions in East Asia," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 27-40.
    2. Michel Aglietta & Virginie Coudert & Camille Baulant, 1999. "Compétitivité et régime de change en Europe centrale," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 50(6), pages 1221-1236.
    3. Alvarez Lois, Pedro Pablo, 2001. "Capital Flows and Foreign Interest Rate Disturbances in a Small Open Economy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 45-72, January.
    4. Juthathip Jongwanich, 2006. "Exchange Rate Regimes, Capital Account Opening and Real Exchange Rates: Evidence from Thailand," Departmental Working Papers 2006-01, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
    5. Filer, Larry II, 2004. "Large capital inflows to Korea: the traditional developing economy story?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 99-110, February.

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