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Power Mismatch and Civil Conflict:An Empirical Investigation

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  • Massimo Morelli
  • Laura Ogliari
  • Long Hong

Abstract

We analyze the infinite repetition with imperfect feedback of a simultaneous or sequential game, assuming that players are strategically sophisticated---but impatient---expected-utility maximizers. Sophisticated strategic reasoning in the repeated game is combined with belief updating to provide a foundation for a refinement of self-confirming equilibrium. In particular, we model strategic sophistication as rationality and common strong belief in rationality. Then, we combine belief updating and sophisticated reasoning to provide sufficient conditions for a kind of learning---that is, the ability, in the limit, to exactly forecast the sequence of future observations---thus showing that impatient agents end up playing a sequence of self-confirming equilibria in strongly rationalizable conjectures of the one-period game. Keywords:Civil War, Military Power, Political Power, Mismatch, Machine Learning

Suggested Citation

  • Massimo Morelli & Laura Ogliari & Long Hong, 2023. "Power Mismatch and Civil Conflict:An Empirical Investigation," Working Papers 703, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    • Handle: RePEc:igi:igierp:703
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

    civil war; military power; political power; mismatch; machine learning;
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