A Note on the Time Series Measure of Conservatism
Asymmetric persistence of accounting income is often tested in a regression of changes in earnings on lagged changes in earnings, including an interaction term for negative changes (see Basu  or Ball et al.  for a recent overview). In this note we propose an alternative, but closely related measure of conservatism - regressing the changes in earnings on the lagged levels, similar to the threshold-unit root test specification of Enders and Granger . We argue that this approach has three distinct advantages compared to the conventional setup: (i) a smooth, non-oscillating impulse response pattern to an unexpected shock in earnings (ii) a return to the old equilibrium of earnings in the long run and (iii) it can be extended to higher order autoregressive processes. We illustrate the differences between the two approaches, when applied to a common data set of firms, as well as a data set from a Monte Carlo simulation.
|Date of creation:||19 Feb 2010|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Rolandstrasse 8, 49069 Osnabrueck|
Web page: http://www.iew.uni-osnabrueck.de/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Luis Gil-Alana & Rolando Peláez, 2008.
"The persistence of earnings per share,"
Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting,
Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 425-439, November.
- Luis A. Gil-Alana & Rolando Pelaez, 2008. "The Persistence of Earnings per Share," Faculty Working Papers 08/08, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
- Ball, Ray & Watts, Ross, 1972. "Some Time Series Properties of Accounting Income," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 27(3), pages 663-681, June.
- Ball, Ray & Shivakumar, Lakshmanan, 2005. "Earnings quality in UK private firms: comparative loss recognition timeliness," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 83-128, February.
- Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie D, 1997. "Further Investigation of the Uncertain Unit Root in GNP," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(1), pages 68-73, January.
- Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie Chinn, 1995. "Further investigation of the uncertain unit root in GNP," Econometrics 9508002, EconWPA.
- Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn, 1996. "Further Investigation of the Uncertain Unit Root in GNP," NBER Technical Working Papers 0206, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Campbell, John Y & Mankiw, N Gregory, 1987. "Permanent and Transitory Components in Macroeconomic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(2), pages 111-117, May.
- Mankiw, N. Gregory & Campbell, John, 1987. "Permanent and Transitory Components in Macroeconomic Fluctuations," Scholarly Articles 3207697, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- John Y. Campbell & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1987. "Permanent and Transitory Components in Macroeconomic Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 2169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-838, May.
- Basu, Sudipta, 1997. "The conservatism principle and the asymmetric timeliness of earnings," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 3-37, December.
- Ball, Ray & Robin, Ashok & Wu, Joanna Shuang, 2003. "Incentives versus standards: properties of accounting income in four East Asian countries," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1-3), pages 235-270, December.
- Enders, Walter & Granger, Clive W J, 1998. "Unit-Root Tests and Asymmetric Adjustment with an Example Using the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(3), pages 304-311, July.
- Enders, Walter & Granger, C. W. J., 1998. "Unit Root Tests and Asymmetric Adjustment with an Example Using the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Staff General Research Papers Archive 1388, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "RATS programs to replicate Enders/Granger JBES(1998)on threshold unit roots," Statistical Software Components RTZ00054, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Ali, Ashiq & Zarowin, Paul, 1992. "Permanent versus transitory components of annual earnings and estimation error in earnings response coefficients," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2-3), pages 249-264, August.
- Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "RATS program to replicate Arellano-Bond 1991 dynamic panel," Statistical Software Components RTZ00169, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
- Windmeijer, Frank, 2005. "A finite sample correction for the variance of linear efficient two-step GMM estimators," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 126(1), pages 25-51, May. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iee:wpaper:wp0081. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Karin Wessler-Rensmann)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.