IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hig/wpaper/33-ec-2013.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Probabilistic extention of the cumulative prospect theory

Author

Listed:
  • Ilya Zutler

    () (National Research University Higher School of Economics. Faculty of Economics, Department of Higher Mathematics)

Abstract

A number of experiments indicate probabilistic preferences in cases where no one alternative is absolutely optimal. The task of predicting the choice of one of the alternatives among multiple alternatives is then practically important and not trivial. It can occur in situations of choice under risk when no one lottery stochastically dominates others. For risky lotteries there are several complicated models of probabilistic binary preference. For the first time, we herein propose the probabilistic extension of the cumulative prospect theory (CPT). The presented visual graphic justification of this model is intuitively clear and does not use sophisticated cumulative summing or a Choquet integral. Here we propose a model of selecting from a set of alternatives by continuous Markov random walks. It makes predicting the results of a choice easy because it fully uses dates received by probabilistic extension of ÑPT. The proposed methods are quite simple and do not require a large amount of data for practical use

Suggested Citation

  • Ilya Zutler, 2013. "Probabilistic extention of the cumulative prospect theory," HSE Working papers WP BRP 33/EC/2013, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:hig:wpaper:33/ec/2013
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.hse.ru/data/2013/09/05/1276995799/33EC2013.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    More about this item

    Keywords

    cumulative prospect theory; probabilistic choice; continues Markov process.;

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • C44 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Operations Research; Statistical Decision Theory

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hig:wpaper:33/ec/2013. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Shamil Abdulaev) or (Shamil Abdulaev). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/hsecoru.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.