Does the Open Limit Order Book Reveal Information About Short-run Stock Price Movements?
This paper empirically tests whether an open limit order book contains information about future short-run stock price movements. To account for the discrete nature of price changes, the integer-valued autoregressive model of order one is utilized. A model transformation has an advantage over conventional count data approaches since it handles negative integer-valued price changes. The empirical results reveal that measures capturing offered quantities of a share at the best bid- and ask-price reveal more information about future short-run price movements than measures capturing the quantities offered at prices below and above. Imbalance and changes in offered quantities at prices below and above the best bid- and ask-price do, however, have a small and significant effect on future price changes. The results also indicate that the value of order book information is short-term.
|Date of creation:||24 Aug 2006|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: 090 - 786 61 42
Fax: 090 - 77 23 02
Web page: http://www.econ.umu.se/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Kurt Brannas & Jorgen Hellstrom, 2001.
"Generalized Integer-Valued Autoregression,"
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(4), pages 425-443.
- Glosten, Lawrence R, 1994. " Is the Electronic Open Limit Order Book Inevitable?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(4), pages 1127-61, September.
- Cho, David Chinhyung & Frees, Edward W, 1988. " Estimating the Volatility of Discrete Stock Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(2), pages 451-66, June.
- Donald B. Keim & Ananth Madhavan, .
"The Cost of Institutional Equity Trades,"
Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers
8-98, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
- Donald B. Keim & Ananth Madhavan, . "The Cost of Institutional Equity Trades," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 08-98, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
- Roman Liesenfeld & Ingmar Nolte & Winfried Pohlmeier, 2006. "Modelling financial transaction price movements: a dynamic integer count data model," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 30(4), pages 795-825, January.
- Harris, Lawrence E. & Panchapagesan, Venkatesh, 2005. "The information content of the limit order book: evidence from NYSE specialist trading decisions," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 25-67, February.
- Ball, Clifford A, 1988. " Estimation Bias Induced by Discrete Security Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(4), pages 841-65, September.
- Foucault, Thierry, 1999. "Order flow composition and trading costs in a dynamic limit order market1," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 99-134, May.
- Seppi, Duane J, 1997. "Liquidity Provision with Limit Orders and a Strategic Specialist," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(1), pages 103-50.
- Nikolaus Hautsch & Winfried Pohlmeier, 2001. "Econometric Analysis of Financial Transaction Data: Pitfalls and Opportunities," CoFE Discussion Paper 01-05, Center of Finance and Econometrics, University of Konstanz.
- repec:fth:pennfi:68 is not listed on IDEAS
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hhs:umnees:0687. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Kjell-Göran Holmberg)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.