IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hhs/umnees/0687.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Does the Open Limit Order Book Reveal Information About Short-run Stock Price Movements?

Author

Listed:
  • Hellström, Jörgen

    () (Department of Economics, Umeå University)

  • Simonsen, Ola

    () (Department of Economics, Umeå University)

Abstract

This paper empirically tests whether an open limit order book contains information about future short-run stock price movements. To account for the discrete nature of price changes, the integer-valued autoregressive model of order one is utilized. A model transformation has an advantage over conventional count data approaches since it handles negative integer-valued price changes. The empirical results reveal that measures capturing offered quantities of a share at the best bid- and ask-price reveal more information about future short-run price movements than measures capturing the quantities offered at prices below and above. Imbalance and changes in offered quantities at prices below and above the best bid- and ask-price do, however, have a small and significant effect on future price changes. The results also indicate that the value of order book information is short-term.

Suggested Citation

  • Hellström, Jörgen & Simonsen, Ola, 2006. "Does the Open Limit Order Book Reveal Information About Short-run Stock Price Movements?," Umeå Economic Studies 687, Umeå University, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:hhs:umnees:0687
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.econ.umu.se/DownloadAsset.action?contentId=50086&languageId=3&assetKey=ues687
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kurt Brannas & Jorgen Hellstrom, 2001. "Generalized Integer-Valued Autoregression," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, pages 425-443.
    2. Glosten, Lawrence R, 1994. " Is the Electronic Open Limit Order Book Inevitable?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(4), pages 1127-1161, September.
    3. Ball, Clifford A, 1988. " Estimation Bias Induced by Discrete Security Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(4), pages 841-865, September.
    4. Harris, Lawrence E. & Panchapagesan, Venkatesh, 2005. "The information content of the limit order book: evidence from NYSE specialist trading decisions," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 25-67, February.
    5. Roman Liesenfeld & Ingmar Nolte & Winfried Pohlmeier, 2006. "Modelling financial transaction price movements: a dynamic integer count data model," Empirical Economics, Springer, pages 795-825.
    6. Seppi, Duane J, 1997. "Liquidity Provision with Limit Orders and a Strategic Specialist," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, pages 103-150.
    7. Donald B. Keim & Ananth Madhavan, "undated". "The Cost of Institutional Equity Trades," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 08-98, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    8. Cho, David Chinhyung & Frees, Edward W, 1988. " Estimating the Volatility of Discrete Stock Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(2), pages 451-466, June.
    9. Foucault, Thierry, 1999. "Order flow composition and trading costs in a dynamic limit order market1," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 99-134, May.
    10. repec:fth:pennfi:68 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Negative integer-valued data; time series; INAR; finance; stock price; open limit order book;

    JEL classification:

    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hhs:umnees:0687. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (David Skog). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/inumuse.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.