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Does the Open Limit Order Book Reveal Information About Short-run Stock Price Movements?

Author

Listed:
  • Hellström, Jörgen

    (Department of Economics, Umeå University)

  • Simonsen, Ola

    (Department of Economics, Umeå University)

Abstract

This paper empirically tests whether an open limit order book contains information about future short-run stock price movements. To account for the discrete nature of price changes, the integer-valued autoregressive model of order one is utilized. A model transformation has an advantage over conventional count data approaches since it handles negative integer-valued price changes. The empirical results reveal that measures capturing offered quantities of a share at the best bid- and ask-price reveal more information about future short-run price movements than measures capturing the quantities offered at prices below and above. Imbalance and changes in offered quantities at prices below and above the best bid- and ask-price do, however, have a small and significant effect on future price changes. The results also indicate that the value of order book information is short-term.

Suggested Citation

  • Hellström, Jörgen & Simonsen, Ola, 2006. "Does the Open Limit Order Book Reveal Information About Short-run Stock Price Movements?," Umeå Economic Studies 687, Umeå University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:umnees:0687
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Negative integer-valued data; time series; INAR; finance; stock price; open limit order book;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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