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On the Suboptimality of Single-Factor Exercise Strategies for Bermudan Swaptions

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Abstract

In this paper we examine the cost of using recalibrated single-factor models to determine the exercise strategy for Bermudan swaptions in a multi-factor world. We demonstrate that single-factor exercise strategies applied in a multi-factor world only give rise to economically insignificant losses. Furthermore, we find that the conditional model risk as defined in Longstaff, Santa-Clara & Schwartz (2001), is statistically insignificant given the number of observations. Additional tests using the Primal-Dual algorithm of Andersen & Broadie (2001) indicate that losses found in Longstaff et al. (2001) cannot as claimed be ascribed to the number of factors. Finally we find that for valuation of Bermudan swaptions with long exercise periods, the simple approach proposed in Andersen (2000) is outperformed by the Least Square Monte Carlo method of Longstaff & Schwartz (2001) and, surprisingly, also by the exercise strategies from the single-factor models.

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  • Svenstrup, Mikkel, 2003. "On the Suboptimality of Single-Factor Exercise Strategies for Bermudan Swaptions," Finance Working Papers 02-24, University of Aarhus, Aarhus School of Business, Department of Business Studies.
  • Handle: RePEc:hhb:aarfin:2002_024
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    1. Rong Fan & Anurag Gupta & Peter Ritchken, 2003. "Hedging in the Possible Presence of Unspanned Stochastic Volatility: Evidence from Swaption Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(5), pages 2219-2248, October.
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    6. Robert A. Jarrow, 2009. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 69-96, November.
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    9. Miltersen, Kristian R & Sandmann, Klaus & Sondermann, Dieter, 1997. " Closed Form Solutions for Term Structure Derivatives with Log-Normal Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 409-430, March.
    10. Longstaff, Francis A. & Santa-Clara, Pedro & Schwartz, Eduardo S., 2001. "Throwing away a billion dollars: the cost of suboptimal exercise strategies in the swaptions market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(1), pages 39-66, October.
    11. Miltersen, Kristian R & Sandmann, Klaus & Sondermann, Dieter, 1997. " Closed Form Solutions for Term Structure Derivatives with Log-Normal Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 409-430, March.
    12. Litzenberger, Robert H, 1992. " Swaps: Plain and Fanciful," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(3), pages 831-850, July.
    13. Jensen, Malene Shin & Svenstrup, Mikkel, 2002. "Efficient Control Variates and Strategies for Bermudan Swaptions in a Libor Market Model," Finance Working Papers 02-23, University of Aarhus, Aarhus School of Business, Department of Business Studies.
    14. Gupta, Anurag & Subrahmanyam, Marti G., 2005. "Pricing and hedging interest rate options: Evidence from cap-floor markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 701-733, March.
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    Keywords

    Bermudan swaption; American option; Least Square Monte Carlo; Libor Market Model; Model Risk; Model Calibration;

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