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Right-wing terrorism and far-right support: Evidence from anti-Roma attacks in Hungary

Author

Listed:
  • Gábor Békés

    (Central European University; ELTE Centre for Economic and Regional Studies)

  • Attila Gáspár

    (ELTE Centre for Economic and Regional Studies)

  • Gábor Simonovits

    (Central European University; ELTE TK)

  • Márton Végh

Abstract

How do ethnically motivated terrorist attacks shape electoral support for the far right? We study a unique case: a coordinated series of anti-Roma murders in Hungary in 2008–2009, the most severe episode of anti-minority violence in the country since World War II. Combining difference-in-differences and synthetic control methods, we compare attacked settlements to multiple counterfactuals, including planned-but-unrealized targets. We find that Jobbik, Hungary’s radical right party, gained 11–14 percentage points more support in attacked villages than in comparable controls in the 2010 election—an increase 53–70% larger than baseline trends. The effect persisted for several years and spilled over to nearby settlements. In contrast to some research from Western Europe suggesting that right-wing terrorism can reduce far-right appeal, our findings highlight how deep-seated prejudice can reverse this pattern. The results underscore the importance of antecedent inter-group relations in conditioning political reactions to ethnic violence.

Suggested Citation

  • Gábor Békés & Attila Gáspár & Gábor Simonovits & Márton Végh, 2025. "Right-wing terrorism and far-right support: Evidence from anti-Roma attacks in Hungary," CERS-IE WORKING PAPERS 2520, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.
    • Handle: RePEc:has:discpr:2520
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    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • J15 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Minorities, Races, Indigenous Peoples, and Immigrants; Non-labor Discrimination

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