Learning, noise traders, the volatility and the level of bond spreads
According to various studies, sovereign bond spreads often deviate from any "sensible" perception of default risk. It is usually attributed to behavioral effects (overreaction) or illiquidity. The former explanation imposes some irrationality or bounded rationality on investors; while the latter usually relies on some informational asymmetry or thin markets. The paper presents a different source of liquidity risk: in a Diamond-Dybvig type model, where agents face a liquidity risk (becoming more risk-averse early consumers), changes in the speed of public learning about default risk may increase bond spreads. This effect operates through a link between future volatility and current levels: increased expected future price volatility (a volatility effect) leads to lower prices today (a level effect). Under reasonable parameter values, accelerated information revelation may increase spreads by 50%. I also compare the welfare of the issuer and investors under different speeds of learning: revealing information may be good or bad for the issuer (issue prices may increase or decrease), and also for the investors (ex ante utility might be higher or lower).
|Date of creation:||2001|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 1112 Budapest, Budaorsi ut 45.|
Phone: (+36-1) 309-2652
Fax: (36-1) 319-3136
Web page: http://econ.core.hu
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Krebs, Tom, 1999. "Information and asset prices in complete markets exchange economies," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 75-83, October.
- Grossman, Sanford J & Miller, Merton H, 1988.
" Liquidity and Market Structure,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 43(3), pages 617-637, July.
- Sanford J. Grossman & Merton H. Miller, 1988. "Liquidity and Market Structure," NBER Working Papers 2641, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Grossman, S.J. & Miller, M.H., 1988. "Liquidity And Market Structure," Papers 88, Princeton, Department of Economics - Financial Research Center.
- Harvey, Campbell R & Huang, Roger D, 1991. "Volatility in the Foreign Currency Futures Market," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 4(3), pages 543-569.
- Redding, Lee S., 1999. "Negative nominal interest rates and the liquidity premium," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 213-216, February.
- Jones, Charles M. & Kaul, Gautam & Lipson, Marc L., 1994. "Information, trading, and volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 127-154, August.
- Douglas W. Diamond & Philip H. Dybvig, 2000. "Bank runs, deposit insurance, and liquidity," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 14-23.
- Diamond, Douglas W & Dybvig, Philip H, 1983. "Bank Runs, Deposit Insurance, and Liquidity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(3), pages 401-419, June.
- Cassano, Mark A., 1999. "Learning and mean reversion in asset returns," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 529-545.
- Ederington, Louis H & Lee, Jae Ha, 1993. " How Markets Process Information: News Releases and Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(4), pages 1161-1191, September.
- Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 421-436, June.
- Robert J. Shiller, 1980. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," NBER Working Papers 0456, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Amihud, Yakov & Mendelson, Haim, 1991. " Liquidity, Maturity, and the Yields on U.S. Treasury Securities," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(4), pages 1411-1425, September.
- Hirshleifer, Jack, 1971. "The Private and Social Value of Information and the Reward to Inventive Activity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 61(4), pages 561-574, September.
- LeRoy, Stephen F & Porter, Richard D, 1981. "The Present-Value Relation: Tests Based on Implied Variance Bounds," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(3), pages 555-574, May. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)