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A small macro econometric model for Kazakhstan: a retrospective of alternative economic policies undertaken during the transition process [Working papers]

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  • Gilles Dufrénot

    (DEFI - Centre de recherche en développement économique et finance internationale - GREQAM - Groupement de Recherche en Économie Quantitative d'Aix-Marseille - ECM - Ecole Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales, CEPII - Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales - Centre d'analyse stratégique, Centre de recherche de la Banque de France - Banque de France)

  • Adelya Ospanova

    (AMU - Aix Marseille Université)

  • Alain Sand-Zantman

    () (GATE Lyon Saint-Étienne - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - ENS Lyon - École normale supérieure - Lyon - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - Université de Lyon - UJM - Université Jean Monnet [Saint-Étienne] - Université de Lyon - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

This paper presents a quarterly macro econometric model of the Kazakhstan. The main goal is to provide a stylized representation of the Kazakh economy in order to simulate the consequences of several economic policies viewed by the authorities as essential during the period of transition to a market economy. The policy simulation potential of the model is illustrated by five types of simulations : interest rate shocks, foreign direct investment shocks, world oil price shocks, foreign demand shocks and nominal wages shocks. These sets of simulations show the importance of foreign direct investments in terms of theirs global positive effect, as well as the demand effect of an increase in the wages. We also find that effect of the tight monetary policy in not ambiguous ; we argue that in some cases it is not the most efficient policy instrument to sustain the economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Gilles Dufrénot & Adelya Ospanova & Alain Sand-Zantman, 2014. "A small macro econometric model for Kazakhstan: a retrospective of alternative economic policies undertaken during the transition process [Working papers]," Working Papers halshs-00926223, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-00926223
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00926223
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stanley Fischer & Ratna Sahay, 2000. "The Transition Economies After Ten Years," IMF Working Papers 00/30, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Stanley Fischer & Ratna Sahay, 2000. "The Transition Economies After Ten Years," NBER Working Papers 7664, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Eivind Tandberg & S. Ramamurthy, 2002. "Treasury Reform in Kazakhstan; Lessons for Other Countries," IMF Working Papers 02/129, International Monetary Fund.
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    Keywords

    Central Asian CIS countries; Kazakhstan; Macroeconomic stabilization; Transition economies;

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