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A small macro econometric model for Kazakhstan: a retrospective of alternative economic policies undertaken during the transition process

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  • Gilles Dufrénot

    (Centre de recherche de la Banque de France - Banque de France, CEPII - Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales - Centre d'analyse stratégique, GREQAM - Groupement de Recherche en Économie Quantitative d'Aix-Marseille - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, DEFI - Centre de recherche en développement économique et finance internationale - GREQAM - Groupement de Recherche en Économie Quantitative d'Aix-Marseille - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Adelya Ospanova

    (DEFI - Centre de recherche en développement économique et finance internationale - GREQAM - Groupement de Recherche en Économie Quantitative d'Aix-Marseille - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, GREQAM - Groupement de Recherche en Économie Quantitative d'Aix-Marseille - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Alain Sand-Zantman

    (GATE Lyon Saint-Étienne - Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon - Saint-Etienne - ENS de Lyon - École normale supérieure de Lyon - Université de Lyon - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - Université de Lyon - UJM - Université Jean Monnet - Saint-Étienne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

This paper presents a quarterly macro econometric model of Kazakhstan. The main goal is to provide a stylized representation of the Kazakh economy in order to simulate the consequences of several economic policies viewed by the authorities as essential during the period of transition to a market economy. The policy simulation potential of the model is illustrated by five types of simulations: interest rate shocks, foreign direct investment shocks, world oil price shocks, foreign demand shocks and nominal wages shocks. These sets of simulations show the importance of foreign direct investments in terms of theirs global positive effect, as well as the demand effect of an increase in the wages. We also find that effect of the tight monetary policy is not unambiguous; we argue that in some cases it is not the most efficient policy instrument to sustain the economy. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media New York 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Gilles Dufrénot & Adelya Ospanova & Alain Sand-Zantman, 2014. "A small macro econometric model for Kazakhstan: a retrospective of alternative economic policies undertaken during the transition process," Post-Print hal-01463114, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01463114
    DOI: 10.1007/s10644-012-9126-3
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    Cited by:

    1. Ibrahim Alnafrah & Sulaiman Mouselli, 2020. "Constructing the Reconstruction Process: a Smooth Transition Towards Knowledge Society and Economy in Post-Conflict Syria," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 11(3), pages 931-948, September.
    2. Thorsten Janus, 2020. "Terms of trade volatility, exports, and GDP," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 25-38, February.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • P20 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - General
    • P51 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Comparative Economic Systems - - - Comparative Analysis of Economic Systems

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