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A small macro econometric model for Kazakhstan: a retrospective of alternative economic policies undertaken during the transition process


  • Gilles Dufrenot


  • Adelya Ospanova
  • Alain Sand-Zantman



This paper presents a quarterly macro econometric model of Kazakhstan. The main goal is to provide a stylized representation of the Kazakh economy in order to simulate the consequences of several economic policies viewed by the authorities as essential during the period of transition to a market economy. The policy simulation potential of the model is illustrated by five types of simulations: interest rate shocks, foreign direct investment shocks, world oil price shocks, foreign demand shocks and nominal wages shocks. These sets of simulations show the importance of foreign direct investments in terms of theirs global positive effect, as well as the demand effect of an increase in the wages. We also find that effect of the tight monetary policy is not unambiguous; we argue that in some cases it is not the most efficient policy instrument to sustain the economy. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media New York 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Gilles Dufrenot & Adelya Ospanova & Alain Sand-Zantman, 2014. "A small macro econometric model for Kazakhstan: a retrospective of alternative economic policies undertaken during the transition process," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 1-39, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:ecopln:v:47:y:2014:i:1:p:1-39
    DOI: 10.1007/s10644-012-9126-3

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Stanley Fischer & Ratna Sahay, 2000. "The Transition Economies After Ten Years," IMF Working Papers 00/30, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Stanley Fischer & Ratna Sahay, 2000. "The Transition Economies After Ten Years," NBER Working Papers 7664, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    4. Eivind Tandberg & S. Ramamurthy, 2002. "Treasury Reform in Kazakhstan; Lessons for Other Countries," IMF Working Papers 02/129, International Monetary Fund.
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    More about this item


    Transition economies; Kazakhstan; Macroeconomic stabilization; Central Asian CIS countries; O11; P20; P51;

    JEL classification:

    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • P20 - Economic Systems - - Socialist Systems and Transition Economies - - - General
    • P51 - Economic Systems - - Comparative Economic Systems - - - Comparative Analysis of Economic Systems


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