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Does soft information matter for financial analysts' forecasts? A gravity model approach

Author

Listed:
  • Régis Breton

    (LEO - Laboratoire d'économie d'Orleans [2008-2011] - UO - Université d'Orléans - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Centre de recherche de la Banque de France - Banque de France)

  • Sébastien Galanti

    (LEO - Laboratoire d'économie d'Orleans [2008-2011] - UO - Université d'Orléans - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Christophe Hurlin

    (LEO - Laboratoire d'économie d'Orleans [2008-2011] - UO - Université d'Orléans - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Anne-Gaël Vaubourg

    (LEO - Laboratoire d'économie d'Orleans [2008-2011] - UO - Université d'Orléans - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

We study whether the financial analysts' concern to maintain good relationships with firms' managers in order to preserve their access to 'soft' qualitative information entice them to issue pessimistic or optimistic forecasts. We use a gravity model approach to firmsanalysts relationships and propose a measure of soft information. Our database contains the one-year ahead EPS forecasts issued by 4 648 analysts about 241 French firms (1997-2007). We find that a low (high) pair-effect is associated with a low (high) forecast error. This suggests that pessimism and optimism result from analysts' concern to preserve access to soft information released by managers.

Suggested Citation

  • Régis Breton & Sébastien Galanti & Christophe Hurlin & Anne-Gaël Vaubourg, 2011. "Does soft information matter for financial analysts' forecasts? A gravity model approach," Working Papers halshs-00829908, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-00829908
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00829908v1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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