IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/wpaper/hal-02864846.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

External shocks and economic activity in DR Congo: a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) analysis
[Choc externes et activité économique en RD Congo : application d’un modèle d’équilibre général dynamique et stochastique (DSGE)]

Author

Listed:
  • Gilles Bertrand Umba

    (BCC - Banque Centrale du Congo)

Abstract

The purpose of this work is to examine the impact of external shocks on economic activity in DR Congo. Using a dynamic and stochastic general equilibrium model, the author simulates four main types of external shocks, namely: (i) the shock on the risk premium; (i) the shock on world inflation; (iii) the global productivity shock; (iv) the global monetary policy shock. Quarterly frequency data was used for the period from January 2005 to December 2017. The results suggest that external shocks leading to a slowdown in global demand have a significant impact on economic activity at the local level. Furthermore, the shock to the world interest rate does not seem to influence domestic economic activity, at least directly. This could be justified by the country's limited financial openness, international trade being the main channel for transmitting external shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Gilles Bertrand Umba, 2020. "External shocks and economic activity in DR Congo: a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) analysis [Choc externes et activité économique en RD Congo : application d’un modèle d’équilibre g," Working Papers hal-02864846, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-02864846
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-02864846
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://hal.science/hal-02864846/document
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sungbae An & Frank Schorfheide, 2007. "Bayesian Analysis of DSGE Models—Rejoinder," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(2-4), pages 211-219.
    2. Pierpaolo Benigno, 2009. "Price Stability with Imperfect Financial Integration," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(s1), pages 121-149, February.
    3. Adolfson, Malin & Laseen, Stefan & Linde, Jesper & Villani, Mattias, 2007. "Bayesian estimation of an open economy DSGE model with incomplete pass-through," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 481-511, July.
    4. Sungbae An & Frank Schorfheide, 2007. "Bayesian Analysis of DSGE Models," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(2-4), pages 113-172.
    5. Adolfson, Malin & Laséen, Stefan & Lindé, Jesper & Villani, Mattias, 2008. "Evaluating an estimated new Keynesian small open economy model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 2690-2721, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Umba, Gilles Bertrand, 2020. "Choc externes et activité économique en RD Congo : une analyse en équilibre général dynamique et stochastique (DSGE)," Dynare Working Papers 63, CEPREMAP.
    2. Rabanal, Pau & Tuesta, Vicente, 2010. "Euro-dollar real exchange rate dynamics in an estimated two-country model: An assessment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 780-797, April.
    3. Cúrdia, Vasco & Finocchiaro, Daria, 2013. "Monetary regime change and business cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 756-773.
    4. Drago Bergholt, 2014. "Foreign shocks in an estimated multi-sector model," Working Papers No 4/2014, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    5. Adnan Haider Bukhari & Safdar Ullah Khan, 2008. "A Small Open Economy DSGE Model for Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 47(4), pages 963-1008.
    6. Benjamín García & Sebastián Guarda & Markus Kirchner & Rodrigo Tranamil, 2019. "XMAS: An extended model for analysis and simulations," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 833, Central Bank of Chile.
    7. McKnight, Stephen & Mihailov, Alexander & Pompa Rangel, Antonio, 2020. "What do Latin American inflation targeters care about? A comparative Bayesian estimation of central bank preferences," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    8. Guerron-Quintana, Pablo A., 2013. "Common and idiosyncratic disturbances in developed small open economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 33-49.
    9. Güneş Kamber & Chris McDonald & Nicholas Sander & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2015. "A structural model for policy analysis and forecasting: NZSIM," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2015/05, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    10. Jonathan Benchimol, 2015. "Money in the production function: A new Keynesian DSGE perspective," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 82(1), pages 152-184, July.
    11. Kilponen, Juha & Orjasniemi, Seppo & Ripatti, Antti & Verona, Fabio, 2016. "The Aino 2.0 model," Research Discussion Papers 16/2016, Bank of Finland.
    12. Benchimol, Jonathan & Fourçans, André, 2017. "Money And Monetary Policy In The Eurozone: An Empirical Analysis During Crises," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(3), pages 677-707, April.
    13. Gelain, Paolo, 2010. "The external finance premium in the Euro area: A dynamic stochastic general equilibrium analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 49-71, March.
    14. Bergholt, Drago & Larsen, Vegard H. & Seneca, Martin, 2019. "Business cycles in an oil economy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 283-303.
    15. Benchimol, Jonathan & Fourçans, André, 2012. "Money and risk in a DSGE framework: A Bayesian application to the Eurozone," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 95-111.
    16. Gallic, Ewen & Vermandel, Gauthier, 2020. "Weather shocks," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    17. Gallic, Ewen & Vermandel, Gauthier, 2017. "Weather Shocks, Climate Change and Business Cycles," MPRA Paper 81230, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Charalampidis, Nikolaos, 2020. "On unemployment cycles in the Euro Area, 1999–2018," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    19. Lama, Ruy & Rabanal, Pau, 2014. "Deciding to enter a monetary union: The role of trade and financial linkages," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 138-165.
    20. Alali, Walid Y., 2009. "Solution Strategies of Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models," EconStor Preprints 269876, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-02864846. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.