IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/wpaper/hal-01696011.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

How the default probability is defined by the CreditRisk+ model?

Author

Listed:
  • Abdelkader Derbali

    (Institut Supérieur de Gestion Sousse, Université de Sousse)

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to investigate theoretically one of the current models of credit portfolio management. There are currently three types of models to consider the risk of credit portfolio: the structural models (Moody's KMV model and CreditMetrics model) also defined by the models of the value of the firm, reduced form models also defined by models with intensity models (the actuarial models) and the econometric models (the Macro-factors model). The development of the three types of models is based on a theoretical basis developed by several researchers. The evolution of their default frequencies and the size of the loan portfolio are expressed as functions of macroeconomic and microeconomic conditions as well as unobservable credit risk factors, which explained by other factors. We developed this paper to explain the different characteristics of the CreditRisk+ models. The purpose of this model is to calculate the default probability of credit portfolio.

Suggested Citation

  • Abdelkader Derbali, 2018. "How the default probability is defined by the CreditRisk+ model?," Working Papers hal-01696011, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01696011
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-01696011
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://hal.science/hal-01696011/document
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. A. Bensoussan & M. Crouhy & D. Galai, 1995. "Stochastic equity volatility related to the leverage effect II: valuation of European equity options and warrants," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(1), pages 43-60.
    2. Ali, Asghar & Daly, Kevin, 2010. "Macroeconomic determinants of credit risk: Recent evidence from a cross country study," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 165-171, June.
    3. Crouhy, Michel & Galai, Dan & Mark, Robert, 2000. "A comparative analysis of current credit risk models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 59-117, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Abdelkader Derbali, 2018. "The Current Models of Credit Portfolio Management: A Comparative Theoretical Analysis," Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 14(5), pages 184-216, OCTOBER.
    2. Abdelkader Derbali, 2018. "The Credit Portfolio Management by the Econometric Models: A Theoretical Analysis," Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 14(4), pages 612-618, AUGUST.
    3. Abdelkader Derbali, 2018. "The credit portfolio management by structural models: A theoretical analysis," Working Papers hal-01696009, HAL.
    4. Yu-Fu Chen & Michael Funke & Kadri Männasoo, 2005. "Extracting Leading Indicators of Bank Fragility from Market Prices - Estonia Focus," Dundee Discussion Papers in Economics 185, Economic Studies, University of Dundee.
    5. Jean-Guy Simonato, 2015. "New Warrant Issues Valuation with Leverage and Equity Model Errors," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 247-272, April.
    6. Suzan Hol, 2006. "The influence of the business cycle on bankruptcy probability," Discussion Papers 466, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    7. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Schuermann, Til & Treutler, Bjorn-Jakob & Weiner, Scott M., 2006. "Macroeconomic Dynamics and Credit Risk: A Global Perspective," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(5), pages 1211-1261, August.
    8. Kanak Patel & Ricardo Pereira, 2007. "Expected Default Probabilities in Structural Models: Empirical Evidence," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 34(1), pages 107-133, January.
    9. Georges Dionne, 2003. "The Foundationsof Banks' Risk Regulation: A Review of Literature," THEMA Working Papers 2003-46, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
    10. Ephraim Clark & Geeta Lakshmi, 2003. "Controlling the risk: a case study of the Indian liquidity crisis 1990-92," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(3), pages 285-298.
    11. Correa, Arnildo & Marins, Jaqueline & Neves, Myrian & da Silva, Antonio Carlos, 2014. "Credit Default and Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation of Brazilian Retail Loans," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 68(3), September.
    12. Nina Vujanović & Nikola Fabris, 2021. "Does market competition affect all banks equally? Empirical evidence on Montenegro," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 10(2), pages 87-107.
    13. Georges Dionne & Geneviève Gauthier & Khemais Hammami & Mathieu Maurice & Jean‐Guy Simonato, 2010. "Default Risk in Corporate Yield Spreads," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 39(2), pages 707-731, June.
    14. Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.
    15. Adriaens, Peter & Tahvanainen, Antti-Jussi, . "Financial Technology for Industrial Renewal," ETLA B, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy, number 272.
    16. Jean-David Fermanian, 2020. "On the Dependence between Default Risk and Recovery Rates in Structural Models," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 140, pages 45-82.
    17. Yuanxin Liu & FengYun Li & Xinhua Yu & Jiahai Yuan & Dong Zhou, 2018. "Assessing the Credit Risk of Corporate Bonds Based on Factor Analysis and Logistic Regress Analysis Techniques: Evidence from New Energy Enterprises in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-21, May.
    18. Wozabal, David & Hochreiter, Ronald, 2012. "A coupled Markov chain approach to credit risk modeling," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 403-415.
    19. Ji, Tingting, 2004. "Consumer Credit Delinquency And Bankruptcy Forecasting Using Advanced Econometrc Modeling," MPRA Paper 3187, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Wei, Jason Z., 2003. "A multi-factor, credit migration model for sovereign and corporate debts," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 709-735, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Risk management; Credit risk; Default probability; Structural models; KMV model; CreditRisk+; Credit Portfolio View;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01696011. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.