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L'immobilier, pilier de la croissance ou épée de Damoclès : bulle immobilière, causes et conséquences macro-économiques d'un retournement du marché immobilier

Author

Listed:
  • Hervé Péléraux

    () (OFCE - OFCE - Sciences Po)

  • Xavier Timbeau

    () (OFCE - OFCE - Sciences Po)

  • Eric Heyer

    () (OFCE - OFCE - Sciences Po)

  • Sabine Le Bayon

    () (OFCE - OFCE - Sciences Po)

Abstract

La hausse récente des prix immobiliers est préoccupante. Depuis le creux du marché immobilier en 1997, la hausse en termes réels a été supérieure à 70 %. Le spectre de la récession de 1993 et du retournement des prix surgit dans les commentaires. La crainte d'une bulle spéculative, d'un emballement du marché immobilier laisse présager un retournement brutal qui laisseraient ménages, banques et investisseurs institutionnels désemparés face à leurs engagements. Il faudrait alors de nombreuses années pour apurer ce marché et la situation financière des agents. L'inflation des prix d'actifs serait le prélude à une inflation incontrôlable, qui des prix des logements se transmet aux loyers. La responsabilité des autorités publiques françaises et européennes serait alors d'éteindre ce foyer d'incendie avant que tout ne brûle, par une hausse graduelle mais ferme des taux d'intérêt. Nous allons montrer que le motif d'inquiétude n'est pas là.

Suggested Citation

  • Hervé Péléraux & Xavier Timbeau & Eric Heyer & Sabine Le Bayon, 2005. "L'immobilier, pilier de la croissance ou épée de Damoclès : bulle immobilière, causes et conséquences macro-économiques d'un retournement du marché immobilier," Working Papers hal-00972769, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-00972769
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal-sciencespo.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00972769
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    1. Paul van den Noord, 2005. "Tax Incentives and House Price Volatility in the Euro Area: Theory and Evidence," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 101, pages 29-45.
    2. Jorge Martínez Pagés & Luis Ángel Maza, 2003. "Analysis of house prices in Spain," Working Papers 0307, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
    3. Jonathan McCarthy & Richard Peach, 2004. "Are home prices the next "bubble"?," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Dec, pages 1-17.
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