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Firms’ financial vulnerabilities during COVID-19: Was the French support package too generous ?

Author

Listed:
  • Sarah Guillou

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Karsten Mau

    (Maastricht University [Maastricht])

  • Tania Treibich

    (Maastricht University [Maastricht], OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

Abstract

We exploit detailed and comprehensive data from France, combining firms' balance sheet information and trade records, to uncover the role of firm characteristics in their exposure to the COVID-19 pandemic. Next, we study the impact of three governmental support policies on firms' liquidity position in 2020: the wage subsidy scheme (AP), the solidarity fund (FSE) and the loan guarantee (PGE). We highlight four dimensions of heterogeneity for policy efficiency in our analysis: the type of liquidity shock, sector and size groups and labor productivity deciles. Our microsimulation exercise shows that aggregate policy support matches very well total liquidity losses. Yet, the compensation scheme was not perfect as these aggregate figures hide heterogeneous policy efficiency across firms and policies. Nearly one fourth of firms were over-compensated, which allowed them to improve their liquidity position, but those that suffered the highest liquidity losses did not receive enough support. Our simulation shows that 7.4 billion (bn) euros of subsidies were given to firms in excess of their liquidity loss. The share of overcompensated firms rises to 39% when we account for the guaranteed loans. We locate them mostly in the wholesale and retail, manufacturing and culture and leisure sectors. Yet, most firms were not fully compensated. This was especially the case for those that became illiquid in 2020, very large firms, highly productive firms, and firms in the hospitality and construction sectors.

Suggested Citation

  • Sarah Guillou & Karsten Mau & Tania Treibich, 2023. "Firms’ financial vulnerabilities during COVID-19: Was the French support package too generous ?," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03981175, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-03981175
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-03981175
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mattia Guerini & Lionel Nesta & Xavier Ragot & Stefano Schiavo, 2020. "Dynamique des défaillances d’entreprises en France et crise de la Covid-19," Post-Print hal-03043893, HAL.
    2. Takeo Hoshi & Anil Kashyap & David Scharfstein, 1991. "Corporate Structure, Liquidity, and Investment: Evidence from Japanese Industrial Groups," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(1), pages 33-60.
    3. Lilas Demmou & Guido Franco & Sara Calligaris & Dennis Dlugosch, 2022. "Liquidity Shortfalls during the COVID 19 Outbreak: Assessment and Policy Responses," Economie et Statistique / Economics and Statistics, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (INSEE), issue 532-33, pages 47-61.
    4. Bond, Stephen & Van Reenen, John, 2007. "Microeconometric Models of Investment and Employment," Handbook of Econometrics, in: J.J. Heckman & E.E. Leamer (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 6, chapter 65, Elsevier.
    5. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/rkjmj2efu9p9odkg4qihv3clh is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Esposito, Federico, 2022. "Demand risk and diversification through international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    7. Mattia Guerini & Lionel Nesta & Xavier Ragot & Stefano Schiavo, 2020. "Dynamique des défaillances d’entreprises en France et crise de la Covid-19," Post-Print hal-03043893, HAL.
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