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M&A rumors about unlisted firms

Author

Listed:
  • Alexander Groh

    (EM - EMLyon Business School)

  • Yan Alperovych

    (EM - EMLyon Business School)

  • Douglas J. Cumming

    (FAU - Florida Atlantic University [Boca Raton])

  • Veronika Czellar

    (SKEMA Business School (France, Lille) - SKEMA BS)

Abstract

We examine 68,044 completed or abandoned M&A transactions involving unlisted targets to determine the effect of transaction rumors on deal-closing propensity and transaction values. Estimation is challenging because rumors may be spread on purpose or emerge accidentally while transaction values are only observable for completed deals and no regulation requires to disclose them. We use indirect inference to overcome these challenges. We find that (a) M&A rumors are deal breakers, (b) rumored but closed deals have higher transaction values, and (c) the combined economic impact of (a) and (b) is negative: in expectation rumors destroy about 32% of transaction value.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexander Groh & Yan Alperovych & Douglas J. Cumming & Veronika Czellar, 2021. "M&A rumors about unlisted firms," Post-Print hal-05603422, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05603422
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2021.05.012
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    Cited by:

    1. Gill-de-Albornoz, Belén & Maffei, Marco & Spagnuolo, Flavio, 2025. "Does the financial reporting quality of private targets matter for deal timing? Evidence from European M&A," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    2. Liu, Kaiyi & Yuan, Xianghui & Wang, Chen & Hou, Wenxuan, 2022. "Silence is golden? Responses to rumors by Chinese listed firms," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    3. Siganos, Antonios & Synapis, Angelos & Tsalavoutas, Ioannis, 2024. "Information leakage prior to market switches and the importance of Nominated Advisers," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(6).
    4. Cumming, Douglas J. & Firth, Christopher & Gathergood, John & Stewart, Neil, 2021. "Covid, work-from-home, and securities misconduct," CFS Working Paper Series 666, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    5. Libgober, Jonathan & Michaeli, Beatrice & Wiedman, Elyashiv, 2026. "With a Grain of Salt: Investor Reactions to Uncertain News and (Non)disclosure," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1).
    6. Andrea Orame & Daniele Pianeselli, 2023. "Thinking the green transition: evidence from the automotive industry," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 767, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    7. Ye Cai & Hersh Shefrin, 2021. "Risk and the Market’s Reaction to M&A Announcements," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-24, July.
    8. Wu, Chunying & Xiong, Xiong & Gao, Ya & Zhang, Jin, 2022. "Does social media distort price discovery? Evidence from rumor clarifications," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    9. Xiaoxu Zhang & Yu Song & Qiaoran Liao, 2023. "Geographical peer effect in serial mergers and acquisitions: The influence of social learning and director network," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 18(12), pages 1-26, December.
    10. Czellar, Veronika & Garcia, René & Le Grand, François, 2025. "Uncovering asset market participation from household consumption and income," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 248(C).
    11. Andres, Christian & Bazhutov, Dmitry & Cumming, Douglas & Köchling, Gerrit & Limbach, Peter, 2025. "Does Speculative News Hurt Productivity? Evidence from Takeover Rumors," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 60(6), pages 2952-2996, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • K22 - Law and Economics - - Regulation and Business Law - - - Business and Securities Law
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General

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