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The Impact of Public Debt on the Twin Imbalances in Europe: a Threshold Model

Author

Listed:
  • Anna Tykhonenko

    (GREDEG - Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (1965 - 2019) - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UniCA - Université Côte d'Azur)

  • Veronika Sulikova

Abstract

Recent empirical research rejecting twin deficits in indebted countries and current account imbalances adjustment in Europe led to the idea to test the twin imbalances at different public debt-to-GDP intervals. The analysis covers 14 EU countries over the time period 1995-2012. A panel data threshold model with fixed effects estimates two debt-toGDP thresholds (40.2% and 96.6%), which determine three debt-to-GDP intervals in the twin relationship. If public debtto-GDP is less than 40.2%, the model determines a negative relationship (twin divergence) between budget balance and current account. Twin deficits (surpluses) are confirmed exclusively if debt-to-GDP is in the interval between 40.2% and 96.6%. A twin divergence is also confirmed if public debt-to-GDP is more than 96.6% (e.g., as in Greece and Italy). The results confirm that increased indebtedness in European countries contributed to their current account imbalance adjustment.
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Suggested Citation

  • Anna Tykhonenko & Veronika Sulikova, 2017. "The Impact of Public Debt on the Twin Imbalances in Europe: a Threshold Model," Post-Print hal-01649728, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01649728
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    Cited by:

    1. Idrys Fransmel Okombi, 2020. "Twin Deficits in Sub-Saharan African Countries: Evidence through debt," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(3), pages 2550-2564.
    2. Idrys Fransmel Okombi, 2021. "Non-Linear Response of Fiscal Policy to the Business Cycle: Empirical Evidence in Sub-Saharan Africa," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 41(3), pages 1097-1112.
    3. Daniel DĂIANU & Ionuț DUMITRU & Leonard UZUM, 2025. "The Twin deficits syndrome – the case of Romania," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 23-39, April.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General

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