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Health Dynamics and Annuitization Decisions: The Case of Social Security

Author

Listed:
  • Diego Ascarza-Mendoza

    (School of Government and Public Transformation, Tecnológico de Monterrey)

  • Alex Carrasco

    (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

Abstract

Why do two out of three Americans claim Social Security benefits before reaching their Full Retirement Age? Why do even sufficiently rich people claim early very often? This paper resolves this puzzling phenomenon by extending a standard incomplete markets life-cycle model to incorporate health dynamics and bequest motives. Relative to the existing literature, health plays a broader role, affecting not only medical expenses and mortality but also directly the marginal utility of consumption. This role of health is disciplined using microdata on consumption, assets, income, and health from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) and the Consumption and Activities Mail Survey (CAMS). The calibrated model successfully replicates the fraction of early claimers. Counterfactual exercises show that health-dependent preferences and bequest motives are crucial for this result. The model’s success is explained by a novel channel that comes from the interaction between the negative effect of worsening health on the marginal utility of consumption, the downward health trend because of aging, and bequest motives. These two elements reduce the gains from delaying by (1) making individuals more impatient and (2) increasing the strength of bequest motives relative to future consumption. The results suggest that governments aiming to insure against longevity must consider the complementary interaction between individual incentives to insure against longevity and health risks.

Suggested Citation

  • Diego Ascarza-Mendoza & Alex Carrasco, 2026. "Health Dynamics and Annuitization Decisions: The Case of Social Security," Working Paper Series of the School of Government and Public Transformation 22, School of Governement and Public Transformation.
  • Handle: RePEc:gnt:wpaper:22
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lee M. Lockwood, 2018. "Incidental Bequests and the Choice to Self-Insure Late-Life Risks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(9), pages 2513-2550, September.
    2. Greg Kaplan & Giovanni L. Violante, 2010. "How Much Consumption Insurance beyond Self-Insurance?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(4), pages 53-87, October.
    3. Mariacristina De Nardi & Eric French & John B. Jones, 2010. "Why Do the Elderly Save? The Role of Medical Expenses," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 118(1), pages 39-75, February.
    4. Roozbei Hosseini & Karen Kopecky & Kai Zhao, 2022. "The Evolution of Health over the Life Cycle," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 45, pages 237-263, July.
    5. David Altig & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Victor Yifan Ye, 2023. "How Much Lifetime Social Security Benefits Are Americans Leaving on the Table?," Tax Policy and the Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 37(1), pages 135-173.
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • C91 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Individual Behavior

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