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Measuring the link between cyclical systemic risk and capital adequacy for Ukrainian banking sector

Author

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  • Alona Shmygel

    (National Bank of Ukraine)

Abstract

In this paper we investigate the impact of cyclical systemic risk on future bank profitability for a large representative panel of Ukrainian banks between 2001 and 2023. Our framework relies on two general methods. The first method is based on linear local projections which allows us to study the estimated negative impact of cyclical systemic risk on bank profitability. The second method is based on the original IMF's Growth-at-Risk approach, utilizing quantile local projections to assess the impact of cyclical systemic risk on the tails of the future bank-level profitability distribution. Additionally, we enhance the macroprudential toolkit with a novel approach to calibrating the countercyclical capital buffer (CCyB). Furthermore, we develop the "Bank Capital-at-Risk" and "Share of vulnerable banks" indicators. These indicators are valuable tools for monitoring the build-up of systemic risk in the banking sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Alona Shmygel, 2023. "Measuring the link between cyclical systemic risk and capital adequacy for Ukrainian banking sector," IHEID Working Papers 17-2023, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    • Handle: RePEc:gii:giihei:heidwp17-2023
    as

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    File URL: http://repec.graduateinstitute.ch/pdfs/Working_papers/HEIDWP17-2023.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lang, Jan Hannes & Forletta, Marco, 2020. "Cyclical systemic risk and downside risks to bank profitability," Working Paper Series 2405, European Central Bank.
    2. Bolt, Wilko & de Haan, Leo & Hoeberichts, Marco & van Oordt, Maarten R.C. & Swank, Job, 2012. "Bank profitability during recessions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 2552-2564.
    3. Lang, Jan Hannes & Izzo, Cosimo & Fahr, Stephan & Ruzicka, Josef, 2019. "Anticipating the bust: a new cyclical systemic risk indicator to assess the likelihood and severity of financial crises," Occasional Paper Series 219, European Central Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Systemic risk; Linear projections; Quantile regressions; Bank capital; Macroprudential policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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