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Regional Analysis of Eastern Province Feeder Road Project - District level estimation of the Poverty Alleviation Effects of Rural Roads Improvements in Zambia’s Eastern Province

Remarkably little is known about the long-term impacts of project aid to lagging poor areas (Chen, Mu et al. 2006, 2008). This paper contributes to the debate about the role of rural transport infrastructure development in explaining the long-term rural development. In line with Grimm and Klasen (2008) we agree that there is value-added to consider this debate at the micro level within a country as particularly questions of parameter heterogeneity and unobserved heterogeneity are likely to be smaller than between countries. Moreover, at the micro level it is possible to identify more precise transmission mechanisms from rural transport infrastructure to socio-economic development outcomes. This is done empirically by analyzing a UNDP&UNCDF financed rural development project in Zambia’s Eastern Province running from 1997-2002. The secondary datasets consist of respectively a series of repeated cross-sectional living conditions monitoring surveys (LCMSs). The LCMSs were collected in 1998 (baseline) and 2004 (follow-up), that is both prior, during and after the project implementation. Our aim is to assess the ability of the parametric and semi-parametric models as well as using a time- series of cross-sections to provide an adequate description of the logarithm of per adult equivalent consumption of rural household conditional on few covariates, including an infrastructure treatment dummy variable. Although, the mean cotton sales share of household income has more than doubled despite the fact that the mean distance to the input market remained unchanged from 1998 to 2004, the parametric and semi-parametric estimation results are only small and statistically insignificant in terms of gains to mean consumption emerged in the longer-term. The main results are robust to corrections for various sources of selection bias.

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Paper provided by Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies in its series IHEID Working Papers with number 10-2012.

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Length: 71 pages
Date of creation: 06 Jul 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:gii:giihei:heidwp10-2012
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  1. Irene Brambilla & Guido Porto, 2005. "Market Structure, Outgrower contracs and Farm Output. Evidence from Cotton Reforms in Zambia," NBER Working Papers 11804, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. M. Ruth & K. Donaghy & P. Kirshen, 2006. "Introduction," Chapters, in: Regional Climate Change and Variability, chapter 1 Edward Elgar.
  3. Mu, Ren & van de Walle, Dominique, 2007. "Rural roads and poor area development in Vietnam," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4340, The World Bank.
  4. Christopher F Baum, 2006. "An Introduction to Modern Econometrics using Stata," Stata Press books, StataCorp LP, number imeus, November.
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  6. He, Xuming & Fung, Wing K. & Zhu, Zhongyi, 2005. "Robust Estimation in Generalized Partial Linear Models for Clustered Data," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 100, pages 1176-1184, December.
  7. Jayne, Thomas S., 2000. "Improving Smallholder and Agri-Business Opportunities in Zambia’s Cotton Sector: Key Challenges and Options," Food Security Collaborative Working Papers 54456, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics.
  8. Stefan Dercon, 2007. "The impact of roads and agricultural extension on consumption growth and poverty in fifteen Ethiopian villages," Economics Series Working Papers WPS/2007-01, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  9. L. Alan Winters, 2002. "Trade Liberalisation and Poverty: What are the Links?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(9), pages 1339-1367, 09.
  10. Joseph Hilbe, 1993. "Generalized linear models," Stata Technical Bulletin, StataCorp LP, vol. 2(11).
  11. L. Alan Winters & Neil McCulloch & Andrew McKay, 2004. "Trade Liberalization and Poverty: The Evidence So Far," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 42(1), pages 72-115, March.
  12. repec:tpr:qjecon:v:110:y:1995:i:4:p:1127-70 is not listed on IDEAS
  13. Balat, Jorge F. & Porto, Guido G., 2005. "The WTO Doha Round, cotton sector dynamics, and poverty trends in Zambia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3697, The World Bank.
  14. Tschirley, David L. & Kabwe, Stephen, 2007. "Cotton in Zambia: 2007 Assessment of its Organization, Performance, Current Policy Initiatives, and Challenges for the Future," Food Security Collaborative Working Papers 54485, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics.
  15. Dercon, Stefan & Hoddinott, John, 2005. "Livelihoods, growth, and links to market towns in 15 Ethiopian villages," FCND discussion papers 194, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  16. Adonis Yatchew, 1998. "Nonparametric Regression Techniques in Economics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 36(2), pages 669-721, June.
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