Pre- and postharvest losses and their correlates in the millet value chain in Nigeria

Food losses continue to constrain food security, rural incomes, and agrifood system efficiency in sub-Saharan Africa, yet comprehensive micro-level evidence across entire value chains remains scarce. This study provides a detailed assessment of pre- and postharvest losses along the millet value chain in northwestern Nigeria, focusing on producers, aggregators, and processors in Sokoto and Zamfara states—two major millet-producing regions. Millet is a nutritionally rich and climate-resilient staple that plays a critical role in Nigeria, making loss reduction in this value chain particularly important for food system resilience. The analysis draws on a purposefully designed baseline survey conducted in 2024, covering 595 millet producers and downstream value chain actors. The study applies a novel attribute-based loss measurement methodology that captures both quantitative losses (physical grain loss) and qualitative losses (quality degradation and associated price penalties), allowing estimation of losses in both volume and value terms across multiple nodes of the value chain. In addition to descriptive loss accounting, econometric models are employed to identify factors correlated with the incidence/likelihood and intensity of preharvest and postharvest losses at the producer level. The results show that millet losses are widespread and concentrated at early stages of the value chain. Nearly all producers experience losses, with preharvest and on-farm postharvest stages accounting for the largest share. Total losses along the value chain average about 9 percent of total volume of production and 6 percent of total value of production. These estimates are comparable to the findings by the African Postharvest Losses Information System of approximately 9 percent millet losses in postharvest production activities in Nigeria. Producer-level losses dominate overall losses, although processors also incur substantial losses during storage, handling, and transportation. Spillage, pest infestation, moisture exposure, and inadequate handling practices are the most frequently reported causes of postharvest losses among downstream actors, although losses by aggregators are generally low. Loss patterns vary systematically across space and demographic groups. Producers in Zamfara experience significantly higher losses than those in Sokoto, with preharvest losses playing a more prominent role. Youth and male producers incur higher total losses than mature producers, while gender differences are also observed in the composition and timing of losses across production stages. These patterns underscore the importance of spatially targeted and demographically sensitive loss-reduction strategies. Econometric results highlight the central role of technology adoption, asset ownership, and management practices in loss reduction. Higher education levels, greater asset ownership, and larger farm size are associated with lower loss intensity, while preharvest shocks significantly exacerbate postharvest losses. The use of improved transportation, winnowing, and storage technologies substantially reduces postharvest loss intensity, whereas higher rainfall and temperature during postharvest periods increase losses. Overall, the study demonstrates that food losses in Nigeria’s millet value chain are systemic but largely preventable. Effective loss reduction requires integrated, value chain–oriented interventions that combine improved production and postharvest technologies, climate adaptation measures, infrastructure investment, and targeted support for youth and smallholders. By providing rigorous micro-level evidence across multiple value chain nodes, the study strengthens the empirical foundation for food loss reduction policies and agrifood system transformation in Nigeria.