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A federal funds rate equation

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  • Yash P. Mehra

Abstract

This paper presents evidence that indicates that U.S. interest rate policy during most of the 1980s can be described by a reaction function in which the federal funds rate rises if real GDP rises above trend GDP, if actual inflation accelerates, or if the long-term bond rate rises. Money growth when included in the reaction function is significant, indicating that money also influenced policy. The results presented here however indicate that in recent years the Fed has discounted the leading indicator properties of money. In contrast, the bond rate has been a key determinant of the funds rate during the period 1979 to 1992.

Suggested Citation

  • Yash P. Mehra, 1995. "A federal funds rate equation," Working Paper 95-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedrwp:95-03
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know about Unit Roots," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 141-220, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. DeJong, David N, et al, 1992. "Integration versus Trend Stationarity in Time Series," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(2), pages 423-433, March.
    3. John B. Carlson & Sharon E. Parrott, 1991. "The demand for M2, opportunity cost, and financial change," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 27(Q II), pages 2-11.
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    Federal funds;

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