IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedmsr/78.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A use of index models in macroeconomic forecasting

Author

Listed:
  • Robert B. Litterman

Abstract

This paper surveys recent issues in macroeconomics from the viewpoint of dynamic economic theory. The need to look beyond demand and supply curves and the insights that come from doing so are emphasized. Examples of issues in debt management and fiscal policy are analyzed.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert B. Litterman, 1982. "A use of index models in macroeconomic forecasting," Staff Report 78, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedmsr:78
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.minneapolisfed.org/research/common/pub_detail.cfm?pb_autonum_id=359
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://minneapolisfed.org/research/sr/sr78.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kloek, Tuen & van Dijk, Herman K, 1978. "Bayesian Estimates of Equation System Parameters: An Application of Integration by Monte Carlo," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 1-19, January.
    2. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    3. Thomas J. Sargent & Christopher A. Sims, 1977. "Business cycle modeling without pretending to have too much a priori economic theory," Working Papers 55, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    4. Sargent, Thomas J, 1978. "Estimation of Dynamic Labor Demand Schedules under Rational Expectations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 1009-1044, December.
    5. Gwilym M. Jenkins & Athar S. Alavi, 1981. "Some Aspects Of Modelling And Forecasting Multivariate Time Series," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(1), pages 1-47, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Robert B. Litterman, 1982. "Optimal control of the money supply," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 6(Fall).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fabrice Collard & Patrick Fève, 2012. "Sur les causes et les effets en macro économie : les Contributions de Sargent et Sims, Prix Nobel d'Economie 2011," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 122(3), pages 335-364.
    2. Jeff B. Cromwell & Michael J. Hannan, 1993. "The Utility of Impulse Response Functions in Regional Analysis: Some Critical Issues," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 15(2), pages 199-222, August.
    3. Thomas J. Sargent, 1977. "Is Keynesian economics a dead end?," Working Papers 101, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    4. Babula, Ronald A. & Bessler, David A. & Schluter, Gerald E., 1990. "Poultry-Related Price Transmissions and Structural Change Since the 1950's," Journal of Agricultural Economics Research, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, vol. 42(2), pages 1-9.
    5. Unknown, 2006. "Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, Volume 2, Number 2, Fall 2006," Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, vol. 2(2).
    6. Geweke, J. & Joel Horowitz & Pesaran, M.H., 2006. "Econometrics: A Bird’s Eye View," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0655, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    7. Brandyn Bok & Daniele Caratelli & Domenico Giannone & Argia M. Sbordone & Andrea Tambalotti, 2018. "Macroeconomic Nowcasting and Forecasting with Big Data," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 10(1), pages 615-643, August.
    8. Babula, Ronald A. & Bessler, David A. & Reeder, John & Somwaru, Agapi, 2004. "Modeling U.S. Soy-Based Markets with Directed Acyclic Graphs and Time Series Econometrics: Evaluating the U.S. Market Impacts of High Soy Meal Prices," Working Paper ID Series 15885, United States International Trade Commission, Office of Industries.
    9. Cimadomo, Jacopo & Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele & Monti, Francesca & Sokol, Andrej, 2022. "Nowcasting with large Bayesian vector autoregressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(2), pages 500-519.
    10. Ben S. Bernanke & James Powell, 1986. "The Cyclical Behavior of Industrial Labor Markets: A Comparison of the Prewar and Postwar Eras," NBER Chapters, in: The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change, pages 583-638, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Robert E. Lucas & Thomas J. Sargent, 1979. "After Keynesian macroeconomics," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 3(Spr).
    12. Babula, Ronald A. & Bessler, David A. & Payne, Warren S., 2003. "Dynamic Relationships Among Selected U.S. Commodity-Based, Value Added Markets: Applying Directed Acyclic Graphs to a Time Series Model," Working Paper ID Series 15879, United States International Trade Commission, Office of Industries.
    13. Daniel Fernández, 2011. "Suficiencia del capital y previsiones de la banca uruguaya por su exposición al sector industrial," Monetaria, CEMLA, vol. 0(4), pages 517-589, octubre-d.
    14. Committee, Nobel Prize, 2011. "Thomas J. Sargent and Christopher A. Sims: Empirical Macroeconomics," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 2011-2, Nobel Prize Committee.
    15. Stock, J.H. & Watson, M.W., 2016. "Dynamic Factor Models, Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressions, and Structural Vector Autoregressions in Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 415-525, Elsevier.
    16. Karlsson, Sune, 2013. "Forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregression," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 791-897, Elsevier.
    17. Bessler, David A., 1985. "The Forecast In Risk Analysis," Regional Research Projects > 1985: S-180 Annual Meeting, March 24-27, 1985, Charleston, South Carolina 271795, Regional Research Projects > S-180: An Economic Analysis of Risk Management Strategies for Agricultural Production Firms.
    18. Terrence Kinal & Jonathan Ratner, 1986. "A VAR Forecasting Model of a Regional Economy: Its Construction and Comparative Accuracy," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 10(2), pages 113-126, August.
    19. Diebold, Francis X & Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1996. "Measuring Business Cycles: A Modern Perspective," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 67-77, February.
    20. Komunjer, Ivana & Zhu, Yinchu, 2020. "Likelihood ratio testing in linear state space models: An application to dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 218(2), pages 561-586.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedmsr:78. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Jannelle Ruswick (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cfrbmus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.