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Adaptation and the Cost of Rising Temperature for the U.S. Economy

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Abstract

How costly will rising temperature due to climate change be for the U.S. economy? Recent research has used the well-identified response of output to weather to estimate this cost. But agents may adapt to the new climate. We propose a methodology to infer adaptation technology from the heterogeneous responses of output to weather observed currently across the U.S. Our model estimates how much each region has adapted already, and can predict how much each will adapt further after climate change. The size and distribution of losses from climate change vary substantially once adaptation is taken into account.

Suggested Citation

  • Charles Fries & François Gourio, 2020. "Adaptation and the Cost of Rising Temperature for the U.S. Economy," Working Paper Series WP 2020-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedhwp:87687
    DOI: 10.21033/wp-2020-08
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    Cited by:

    1. Cantelmo, Alessandro & Melina, Giovanni & Papageorgiou, Chris, 2023. "Macroeconomic outcomes in disaster-prone countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    2. Bo Liu & Barry T. Hirsch, 2021. "Winter weather and work hours: Heterogeneous effects and regional adaptation," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 39(4), pages 867-881, October.
    3. Simone Emiliozzi & Filippo Favero, 2025. "Unveiling natural gas consumption sectoral price elasticities," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 941, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    4. Boss, Konstantin & Testa, Alessandra, 2025. "What goes around comes around: The US climate-economic cycle," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    5. Adrien Bilal & James H. Stock, 2025. "A Guide to Macroeconomics and Climate Change," NBER Working Papers 33567, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • P46 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Other Economic Systems - - - Consumer Economics; Health; Education and Training; Welfare, Income, Wealth, and Poverty
    • Q51 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Valuation of Environmental Effects
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth

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