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Measuring Shortages since 1900

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Abstract

This paper introduces a monthly shortage index spanning 1900 to the present, constructed from 25 million newspaper articles. The index captures shortages across industry, labor, food, and energy, and spikes during economic crises and wars. We validate the index and show that it provides information beyond traditional macroeconomic indicators. Using predictive regressions, we find that shortages are associated with persistently high inflation and lower economic activity. A structural VAR model reveals that, compared to a traditional supply shock, surprise movements in shortages produce less inflation relative to their GDP impact, suggesting that shortages are associated with constraints on price adjustment that limit inflation but magnify the decline in real activity. We also show that post-pandemic shortages and inflation were primarily driven by supply forces, with demand factors playing a less important role.

Suggested Citation

  • Dario Caldara & Matteo Iacoviello & David Yu, 2025. "Measuring Shortages since 1900," International Finance Discussion Papers 1407, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:1407
    DOI: 10.17016/IFDP.2025.1407
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Shortages; Inflation; Textual analysis; Predictive regressions; Structural VAR model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C55 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Large Data Sets: Modeling and Analysis
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • N10 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - General, International, or Comparative

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