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A Model of Charles Ponzi

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Abstract

We develop a model of Ponzi schemes with asymmetric information to study Ponzi frauds. A long-lived agent offers to save on behalf of short-lived agents at a higher rate than they can earn themselves. The long-lived agent may genuinely have a superior savings technology, but may be an imposter trying to steal from short-lived agents. The model identifies when a Ponzi fraud can occur and what interventions can prevent it. A key feature of Ponzi frauds is that the long-lived agent builds trust over time and improves their reputation by keeping the scheme going.

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  • Gadi Barlevy & Inês Xavier, 2025. "A Model of Charles Ponzi," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2025-020, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2025-20
    DOI: 10.17016/FEDS.2025.020
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ville Rantala, 2019. "How Do Investment Ideas Spread through Social Interaction? Evidence from a Ponzi Scheme," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 74(5), pages 2349-2389, October.
    2. Antonio Doblas‐Madrid, 2012. "A Robust Model of Bubbles With Multidimensional Uncertainty," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(5), pages 1845-1893, September.
    3. Frankel, Tamar, 2012. "The Ponzi Scheme Puzzle: A History and Analysis of Con Artists and Victims," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199926619, Decembrie.
    4. Chris Jarvis, 2000. "The Rise and Fall of the Pyramid Schemes in Albania," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 47(1), pages 1-1.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Ponzi scheme; Asymmetric information; Reputation; Fraud;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C73 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Stochastic and Dynamic Games; Evolutionary Games
    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • G51 - Financial Economics - - Household Finance - - - Household Savings, Borrowing, Debt, and Wealth
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
    • L14 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Transactional Relationships; Contracts and Reputation

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