IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Lack of signal error (LoSE) and implications for OLS regression: measurement error for macro data

  • Jeremy J. Nalewaik
Registered author(s):

    This paper proposes a simple generalization of the classical measurement error model, introducing new measurement errors that subtract signal from the true variable of interest, in addition to the usual classical measurement errors (CME) that add noise. The effect on OLS regression of these lack of signal errors (LoSE) is opposite the conventional wisdom about CME: while CME in the explanatory variables causes attenuation bias, LoSE in the dependent variable, not the explanatory variables, causes a similar bias under some conditions. In addition, LoSE in the dependent variable shrinks the variance of the regression residuals, making inference potentially misleading. The paper provides evidence that LoSE is an important source of error in US macroeconomic quantity data such as GDP growth, illustrates downward bias in regressions of GDP growth on asset prices, and provides recommendations for econometric practice.

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

    File URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/2008/200815/200815abs.html
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/2008/200815/200815pap.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series Finance and Economics Discussion Series with number 2008-15.

    as
    in new window

    Length:
    Date of creation: 2008
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2008-15
    Contact details of provider: Postal: 20th Street and Constitution Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20551
    Web page: http://www.federalreserve.gov/

    More information through EDIRC

    Order Information: Web: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/fedsorder.html

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

    as in new window
    1. Jon Faust & John H. Rogers & Shing-Yi B. Wang & Jonathan H. Wright, 2003. "The high-frequency response of exchange rates and interest rates to macroeconomic announcements," International Finance Discussion Papers 784, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Fama, Eugene F, 1990. " Stock Returns, Expected Returns, and Real Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1089-1108, September.
    3. Martin D.D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2005. "Meese-Rogoff Redux: Micro-Based Exchange Rate Forecasting," NBER Working Papers 11042, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. repec:fth:harver:1435 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Arturo Estrella & Gikas A. Hardouvelis, 1989. "The term structure as a predictor of real economic activity," Research Paper 8907, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    6. Dennis J. Fixler & Jeremy Nalewaik, 2010. "News, Noise, and Estimates of the "True" Unobserved State of the Economy," BEA Working Papers 0068, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
    7. Dennis Fixler & Bruce Grimm, 2006. "GDP Estimates: Rationality Tests and Turning Point Performance," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 25(3), pages 213-229, 06.
    8. Kimball, Miles S & Sahm, Claudia R & Shapiro, Matthew D, 2008. "Imputing Risk Tolerance From Survey Responses," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 103(483), pages 1028-1038.
    9. Karen E. Dynan & Douglas Elmendorf, 2001. "Do provisional estimates of output miss economic turning points?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-52, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    10. Christian Broda & David E. Weinstein, 2007. "Product Creation and Destruction: Evidence and Price Implications," NBER Working Papers 13041, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. John Y. Campbell & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1989. "Consumption, Income, and Interest Rates: Reinterpreting the Time Series Evidence," NBER Working Papers 2924, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Jeremy J. Nalewaik, 2007. "Incorporating vintage differences and forecasts into Markov switching models," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-23, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    13. Chen, Nai-Fu, 1991. " Financial Investment Opportunities and the Macroeconomy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 529-54, June.
    14. N. Gregory Mankiw & Matthew D. Shapiro, 1986. "News or Noise? An Analysis of GNP Revisions," NBER Working Papers 1939, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2007. "Exchange Rate Fundamentals and Order Flow," NBER Working Papers 13151, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2008-15. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Kris Vajs)

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.