The taxation of equity, dividends, and stock prices
The Jobs and Growth Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2003 (JGTRRA) essentially halved the tax rate on dividends and reduced the top tax rate on capital gains. This paper explores the likely effect of JGTRRA on the composition of returns on corporations’ common stock. Both larger corporations’ past behavior and theory suggest that the recent tax cuts are not likely to increase dividend payouts significantly. Instead, in the short run, dividends will continue to rise in the customary way in response to the recovery in earnings. In the longer run, the tax cuts will principally reduce companies’ cost of capital, fostering capital deepening, when the economy is at full employment. With constant returns to scale prevailing at full employment, capital deepening reduces corporations’ average gross return on assets and equity. Because the tax cuts increase the value of each dollar of earnings for shareholders, they could raise price-earnings ratios by more than 10 percent and stock prices by more than 6 percent. By fostering capital deepening, the tax cuts also tend to increase the real compensation of labor at full employment.
|Date of creation:||2005|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 600 Atlantic Avenue, Boston, Massachusetts 02210|
Web page: http://www.bos.frb.org/
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Email: |
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 2001.
"Disappearing dividends: changing firm characteristics or lower propensity to pay?,"
Journal of Financial Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 3-43, April.
- Eugene F. Fama & Kenneth R. French, 2001. "Disappearing Dividends: Changing Firm Characteristics Or Lower Propensity To Pay?," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 14(1), pages 67-79.
- Eugene F. Fama & Kenneth R. French, . "Disappearing Dividends: Changing Firm Characteristics or Lower Propensity to Pay?."," CRSP working papers 509, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
- Gravelle, Jane G., 2003. "Effects of Dividend Relief on Economic Growth, the Stock Market, and Corporate Tax Preferences," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 56(3), pages 653-72, September.
- N. Gregory Mankiw & Matthew Weinzierl, 2005.
"Dynamic Scoring: A Back-of-the-Envelope Guide,"
Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers
2057, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- Allen, Franklin & Michaely, Roni, 2003.
Handbook of the Economics of Finance,
in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 7, pages 337-429
- DeAngelo, Harry & DeAngelo, Linda & Skinner, Douglas J., 2004. "Are dividends disappearing? Dividend concentration and the consolidation of earnings," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(3), pages 425-456, June.
- Merton H. Miller & Franco Modigliani, 1961. "Dividend Policy, Growth, and the Valuation of Shares," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34, pages 411.
- Alon Brav & John R. Graham & Campbell R. Harvey & Roni Michaely, 2003.
"Payout Policy in the 21st Century,"
NBER Working Papers
9657, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- James Poterba, 2004.
"Taxation and Corporate Payout Policy,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 171-175, May.
- DeAngelo, Harry & DeAngelo, Linda & Stulz, Rene M., 2004.
"Dividend Policy, Agency Costs, and Earned Equity,"
Working Paper Series
2004-10, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
- Richard W. Kopcke & Matthew S. Rutledge, 2004. "Stock prices and the equity premium during the recent bull and bear markets," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, pages 63-85.
- Auerbach, Alan J., 2002.
"Taxation and corporate financial policy,"
Handbook of Public Economics,
in: A. J. Auerbach & M. Feldstein (ed.), Handbook of Public Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 19, pages 1251-1292
- Antràs Pol, 2004.
"Is the U.S. Aggregate Production Function Cobb-Douglas? New Estimates of the Elasticity of Substitution,"
The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics,
De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 1-36, April.
- Antras, Pol, 2004. "Is the U.S. Aggregate Production Function Cobb-Douglas? New Estimates of the Elasticity of Substitution," Scholarly Articles 3196325, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Miller, Merton H, 1977. "Debt and Taxes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(2), pages 261-75, May.
- Carroll, Robert & Hassett, Kevin A. & Mackie, James B. III, 2003. "The Effect of Dividend Tax Relief on Investment Incentives," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 56(3), pages 629-51, September.
- Shefrin, Hersh M. & Statman, Meir, 1984. "Explaining investor preference for cash dividends," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 253-282, June.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedbpp:05-1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Catherine Spozio)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.