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A generalized method for detecting abnormal returns and changes in systematic risk

  • Ken B. Cyree
  • Ramon P. DeGennaro

The authors generalize traditional event-study techniques to allow for event-induced parameter shifts, shifting variances, and firm-specific event periods. Their method, which nests traditional methods, also permits systematic risk to change gradually during the event period and exit the period at higher or lower levels. The authors use their approach to study 132 banks that acquired other institutions between 1989 and 1995. The authors find a significant change in the systematic risk of the acquiring firms, significant ARCH effects, and an event period that ends before the date of the announcement. None of these results is detectable using conventional methods. These results imply that (1) event studies that cannot account for information leakage may be biased, and (2) changes in systematic risk can occur in the absence of abnormal returns, and (3) regulators, investors and bank managers must evaluate each acquisition on its own merits; reliance on averages can mask important distinctions across acquisitions.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta in its series FRB Atlanta Working Paper No. with number 2001-8.

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Date of creation: 2001
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedawp:2001-8
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  1. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
  2. Madura, Jeff & Wiant, Kenneth J., 1994. "Long-term valuation effects of bank acquisitions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(6), pages 1135-1154, December.
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  6. Karafiath, Imre, 1994. "On the Efficiency of Least Squares Regression with Security Abnormal Returns as the Dependent Variable," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 29(02), pages 279-300, June.
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  15. Ramon P. DeGennaro & James B. Thomson, 1994. "Anticipating bailouts: the incentive-conflict model and the collapse of the Ohio Deposit Guarantee Fund," Working Paper 9407, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  16. Brown, Keith C. & Lockwood, Larry J. & Lummer, Scott L., 1985. "An Examination of Event Dependency and Structural Change in Security Pricing Models," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(03), pages 315-334, September.
  17. Houston, Joel F. & Ryngaert, Michael D., 1994. "The overall gains from large bank mergers," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(6), pages 1155-1176, December.
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