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Custo de ciclo econômico no Brasil em um modelo com restrição a crédito

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  • Ferreira, Pedro Cavalcanti
  • Cunha, Bárbara Vasconcelos Boavista da

Abstract

O estudo do impacto de ciclo econômico no bem-estar dos indivíduos de uma economia é um assunto de grande importância teórica. Ao considerarmos a economia brasileira, onde grande maioria dos indivíduos não dispõe de mecanismos de crédito, ele torna-se ainda mais relevante. Se os agentes não são capazes de suavizar consumo segundo a hipótese da renda permanente de Friedman é de se esperar que sofram impactos ainda maiores diante de flutuações na renda. Utilizamos o modelo proposto por Imrohoroglu (1989) para os dados da economia brasileira a fim de mensurar a perda de bem-estar causada por um ciclo econômico. A partir de resultados que mostram o significativo custo dos ciclos econômicos, propomos a introdução do governo no modelo. Agindo no sentido de completar mercados, o governo se mostrou eficiente. Apesar de simples, nosso experimento mostrou a importância de investigarmos a ação governamental como opção para elevação do bem-estar em economias restritas ao crédito ao longo de flutuações econômicas.

Suggested Citation

  • Ferreira, Pedro Cavalcanti & Cunha, Bárbara Vasconcelos Boavista da, 2003. "Custo de ciclo econômico no Brasil em um modelo com restrição a crédito," FGV/EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 471, FGV/EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
  • Handle: RePEc:fgv:epgewp:471
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1999. "Business cycle fluctuations in us macroeconomic time series," Handbook of Macroeconomics,in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 1, pages 3-64 Elsevier.
    2. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-1370, November.
    3. Greenwood, Jeremy & Huffman, Gregory W., 1991. "Tax analysis in a real-business-cycle model : On measuring Harberger triangles and Okun gaps," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, pages 167-190.
    4. Sachsida, Adolfo & Junior, Roberto de Góes Ellery & Gomes, Victor, 2002. "Business Cycle Fluctuations in Brazil," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, FGV/EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 56(2), April.
    5. Townsend, Robert M., 1988. "Information constrained insurance : The revelation principle extended," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 411-450.
    6. Narayana R. Kocherlakota, 2000. "Creating business cycles through credit constraints," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Sum, pages 2-10.
    7. Imrohoruglu, Ayse, 1989. "Cost of Business Cycles with Indivisibilities and Liquidity Constraints," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(6), pages 1364-1383, December.
    8. Scheinkman, Jose A & Weiss, Laurence, 1986. "Borrowing Constraints and Aggregate Economic Activity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(1), pages 23-45, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Leandro Gonçalves do Nascimento, 2004. "Investment in Human Capital in a Macrodynamic Framework: Redistributive Taxation, Public Debt and Welfare," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 539, Econometric Society.
    2. Leandro Nascimento, 2004. "Investment in Human Capital in a Macrodynamic Framework: Redistributive Taxation, Public Debt and Welfare," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 100, Econometric Society.

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