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Trade or investment? location decisions under regional integration

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  • Cavalcanti, Marco Antonio Freitas de Hollanda
  • Flôres Junior, Renato Galvão

Abstract

This paper studies the production and trade patterns that may arise between two different countries if plant location is introduced as a first step in the producers' decision making. A three-stage game is used: the first deals with location and the next two with capacity and final sales decisions. Demand and cost structures differ by country, and the latter contain specific elements related to the foreign operation. The structure of possible Nash-equilibria is examined and an analysis of the changes in the solution, if the countries engage in an integration process, is made. As in previous models, though global welfare gains may not be very high, single country ones may be considerable, due to changes in the location of the plants. However, even if full integration takes place, global Marshallian welfare may decrease. Conditions which determine a tendency towards multinationalisation are obtained. Assuming a move toward integration, conditions are also provided to characterize when exporting will be preferred to local production. The fact that producers may retain a certain discriminating power, notwithstanding the elimination of barriers to arbitrage, creates a tendency to locate production in the country where prices are higher. This explains why welfare gains may not be obvious. An empirical illustration, with real data from two MERCOSUL countries (Brazil and Argentina) illustrates the possible outcomes.

Suggested Citation

  • Cavalcanti, Marco Antonio Freitas de Hollanda & Flôres Junior, Renato Galvão, 1995. "Trade or investment? location decisions under regional integration," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 253, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
  • Handle: RePEc:fgv:epgewp:253
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ignatius J. Horstmann & James R. Markusen, 2021. "Endogenous market structures in international trade (natura facit saltum)," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: BROADENING TRADE THEORY Incorporating Market Realities into Traditional Models, chapter 2, pages 25-45, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Rowthorn, R E, 1992. "Intra-industry Trade and Investment under Oligopoly: The Role of Market Size," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 102(411), pages 402-414, March.
    3. Engle, Robert F. & Issler, Joao Victor, 1995. "Estimating common sectoral cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 83-113, February.
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